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Clyde v Dumbarton

Clyde

2–1Full time

Dumbarton

League Two · SAT 10 OCT · New Douglas Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Clyde 2–1 Dumbarton CLYDE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Clyde win~~54%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.320

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.254

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Clyde win at 54%.
0′KICK-OFF Clyde v Dumbarton
8′Little has changed for our model: Clyde 54% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–24–23
8′SUBSTITUTION · 7' Clyde · On: M. Redfern · Off: N. Cannon
20′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Clyde
20′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Dumbarton
22′22′ and it is 0–0: K. Connell on the scoresheet for Clyde. 0–0 · 50–27–23
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' T. Lang · Dumbarton
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Clyde 0–0 Dumbarton · K. Connell
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Clyde 1–0 Dumbarton · K. Connell
27′We said Clyde at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
29′We said Clyde at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–16–7
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Clyde win: 54% at kick-off, 77% now
35′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
45′⚽ GOAL · 40' Clyde 1–0 Dumbarton
45′HALF-TIME Clyde 2–0 Dumbarton
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Clyde 2–0 Dumbarton · K. Connell
45′SECOND HALF Clyde 2–0 Dumbarton
46′Clyde ahead on 44′ through J. Bradley. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Clyde win: 54% at kick-off, 95% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dumbarton · On: K. Webster · Off: J. Sowa
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dumbarton · On: F. Turley · Off: R. Cleary
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dumbarton · On: K. Kirkpatrick · Off: S. Honeyman
66′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Clyde
69′🟨 YELLOW · 67' T. Scott · Clyde
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Clyde · On: J. Anderson · Off: T. Scott
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Clyde · On: J. Hilton · Off: K. Connell
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Clyde · On: J. Anderson · Off: T. Scott
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Clyde · On: J. Hilton · Off: K. Connell
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Clyde 2–1 Dumbarton · J. Bradley
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Clyde 2–1 Dumbarton
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Dumbarton
90′🟥 RED CARD · 91' Dumbarton
FTFULL TIME Clyde 2–1 Dumbarton
FTClyde 2–1 Dumbarton · Clyde win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Clyde win54%

Draw23%

Dumbarton win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · New Douglas Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Clyde

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Hogarth

18 L. Rooney

22 K. Fleming

15 L. Dunachie

3 L. Lovering

8 B. Cuddihy

14 J. Bradley

19 T. Scott

11 K. Connell

17 N. Cannon

9 S. Williamson

Coach · –

Substitutes

21 · D. Terry

2 · D. Hynes

6 · B. Strachan

7 · M. Redfern

10 · J. Hilton

20 · B. Kiltie

24 · J. Forrest

25 · C. Inglis

26 · J. Anderson

Dumbarton

Formation not confirmed

54 M. Munn

19 C. McKenna

5 T. Lang

3 A. Omar

24 M. Doyle

21 S. Honeyman

8 J. Todd

6 O. Hartington

11 J. Sowa

15 L. McIntosh

20 R. Cleary

Coach · –

Substitutes

28 · J. Mcconnell

4 · K. Webster

7 · S. Tomlinson

10 · D. Craig

14 · T. Wallace

17 · A. Spalding

22 · F. Turley

27 · K. Kirkpatrick

34 · T. Robson

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Clyde

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Hogarth

18 L. Rooney

22 K. Fleming

15 L. Dunachie

3 L. Lovering

8 B. Cuddihy

14 J. Bradley

19 T. Scott

11 K. Connell

17 N. Cannon

9 S. Williamson

Coach · –

Substitutes

21 · D. Terry

2 · D. Hynes

6 · B. Strachan

7 · M. Redfern

10 · J. Hilton

20 · B. Kiltie

24 · J. Forrest

25 · C. Inglis

26 · J. Anderson

Dumbarton

Formation not confirmed

54 M. Munn

19 C. McKenna

5 T. Lang

3 A. Omar

24 M. Doyle

21 S. Honeyman

8 J. Todd

6 O. Hartington

11 J. Sowa

15 L. McIntosh

20 R. Cleary

Coach · –

Substitutes

28 · J. Mcconnell

4 · K. Webster

7 · S. Tomlinson

10 · D. Craig

14 · T. Wallace

17 · A. Spalding

22 · F. Turley

27 · K. Kirkpatrick

34 · T. Robson

Our number · clyde winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

54% The market59%

Us54%

~~Market~~59%

We make Clyde a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · clyde win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 58% to 59% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Clyde win	54%	59%	−5
Draw	23%	23%	0
Dumbarton win	23%	19%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	60%	64%	−4
Both teams to score	59%	62%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	83%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	44%	−7
Clyde or draw	77%	81%	−5
Clyde clean sheet	31%	–	–
Dumbarton clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%

0123450 5.0 5.0 3.2 1 8.3 10.6 6.0 2.4 2 8.2 9.6 5.7 2.3 3 5.3 6.1 3.6 4 2.5 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Clyde down, Dumbarton across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 955 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.2% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.78 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Clyde at home: 3.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dumbarton away: 0.33 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.91 goals for Clyde, 1.19 for Dumbarton. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.78

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~DUM 1–0 CLY · CLY 2–0 DUM · DUM 0–0 CLY · CLY 3–1 DUM

Form · last six in League Two

CLYDE

WDWWDL3–0 · 3–3 · 3–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–6

DUMBARTON

LLWLWW1–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stranraer	9	+9	17
2	Clyde	9	+5	17
3	Edinburgh City	9	+4	15
4	Elgin City	9	+9	14
5	Spartans	9	+2	12
6	Kelty Hearts	9	−5	12
7	Dumbarton	9	−5	12
8	Forfar Athletic	9	−6	11
9	Annan Athletic	9	−2	9
10	Stirling Albion	9	−11	8