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Annan Athletic v Stranraer

Annan Athletic

1–6Full time

Stranraer

League Two · SAT 10 OCT · Galabank

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Annan Athletic 1–6 Stranraer ANNAN ATHLETIC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Annan Athletic win~~39%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.667

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.540

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Annan Athletic win at 39%.
1′KICK-OFF Annan Athletic v Stranraer
8′Much as we predicted: Annan Athletic was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–33
16′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Stranraer
26′A goal for Stranraer on 23′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 36–33–31
29′A. Healy scores for Stranraer on 23′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–23–65
29′⚽ GOAL · 23' Annan Athletic 0–1 Stranraer
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Annan Athletic win: 39% at kick-off, 12% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Stranraer win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Annan Athletic win 12%)
35′We said Annan Athletic at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–23–66
39′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 0–1 · 10–23–67
41′⚽ GOAL · 36' Annan Athletic 0–2 Stranraer
41′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Annan Athletic
42′36′ and it is 0–2: Stranraer have scored. 0–2 · 2–7–91
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Annan Athletic win: 39% at kick-off, 2% now
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Annan Athletic · On: D. Williams · Off: C. O'Donnell
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Annan Athletic · On: T. Muir · Off: A. Roy
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Annan Athletic · On: M. Niang · Off: D. Carrick
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Annan Athletic · On: J. Dixon · Off: S. Buchanan
46′SECOND HALF Annan Athletic 0–2 Stranraer
47′We said Annan Athletic at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–2 · 2–7–92
59′⚽ GOAL · 60' Annan Athletic 0–2 Stranraer
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Annan Athletic 0–3 Stranraer · A. Healy
68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Stranraer · On: J. Dolan · Off: A. Traynor
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' Annan Athletic 0–3 Stranraer · T. Muir
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Annan Athletic 0–4 Stranraer · T. Muir
72′⚽ GOAL · 73' Annan Athletic 0–4 Stranraer
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Annan Athletic 0–5 Stranraer · T. Muir
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Annan Athletic 0–5 Stranraer
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Annan Athletic 1–5 Stranraer · T. Muir
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Stranraer · On: J. Stuart · Off: Z. Bruce
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Annan Athletic 1–5 Stranraer · D. Clelland
74′⚽ GOAL · 75' Annan Athletic 1–5 Stranraer
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Annan Athletic 1–5 Stranraer · A. Smith (assist M. Niang)
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Stranraer · On: L. Gillie · Off: B. Coll
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Stranraer · On: D. Plank · Off: A. Healy
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Annan Athletic 1–6 Stranraer · A. Smith
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Annan Athletic 1–6 Stranraer
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Annan Athletic
88′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Annan Athletic
FTFULL TIME Annan Athletic 1–6 Stranraer
FTAnnan Athletic 1–6 Stranraer · Annan Athletic win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Annan Athletic win39%

Draw28%

Stranraer win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Galabank

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Annan Athletic

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Albinson

20 D. Carrick

6 K. Watson

3 C. Clark

16 S. Buchanan

14 C. Williams

33 W. Gibson

19 C. Maxwell

9 A. Smith

17 C. O'Donnell

18 A. Roy

Coach · Wullie Gibson

Substitutes

12 · G. Fleming

7 · J. Dixon

8 · P. Smith

11 · D. Williams

21 · M. Niang

10 · T. Muir

Stranraer

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Currie

2 E. Dunne

4 M. McLuckie

5 K. Nair

22 B. Coll

8 A. Quigg

12 A. Traynor

14 Z. Bruce

11 A. Healy

24 S. Mason

16 L. Dobbie

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · E. Henderson

6 · J. Stuart

7 · J. Dolan

9 · R. Foster

10 · D. Plank

18 · E. Lynch

20 · C. Cameron

21 · L. Gillie

77 · D. Clelland

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Annan Athletic

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Albinson

20 D. Carrick

6 K. Watson

3 C. Clark

16 S. Buchanan

14 C. Williams

33 W. Gibson

19 C. Maxwell

9 A. Smith

17 C. O'Donnell

18 A. Roy

Coach · Wullie Gibson

Substitutes

12 · G. Fleming

7 · J. Dixon

8 · P. Smith

11 · D. Williams

21 · M. Niang

10 · T. Muir

Stranraer

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Currie

2 E. Dunne

4 M. McLuckie

5 K. Nair

22 B. Coll

8 A. Quigg

12 A. Traynor

14 Z. Bruce

11 A. Healy

24 S. Mason

16 L. Dobbie

Coach · –

Substitutes

13 · E. Henderson

6 · J. Stuart

7 · J. Dolan

9 · R. Foster

10 · D. Plank

18 · E. Lynch

20 · C. Cameron

21 · L. Gillie

77 · D. Clelland

Our number · annan athletic winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

39% The market34%

Us39%

~~Market~~34%

We make Annan Athletic a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · annan athletic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 35% to 34% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Annan Athletic win	39%	34%	+5
Draw	28%	26%	+2
Stranraer win	34%	40%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	46%	56%	−10
Both teams to score	51%	60%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	72%	78%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	25%	35%	−11
Annan Athletic or draw	66%	60%	+7
Annan Athletic clean sheet	30%	–	–
Stranraer clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.7 9.2 5.9 2.4 1 10.1 13.1 7.6 3.1 2 6.9 8.2 5.0 2.0 3 3.1 3.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Annan Athletic down, Stranraer across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 955 League Two matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League Two matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.2% of games this season, across 45 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Annan Athletic at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Stranraer away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Annan Athletic, 1.21 for Stranraer. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 13

~~Both scored~~6 of 13

~~Last meetings~~STR 0–1 ANN · ANN 1–0 STR · STR 0–0 ANN · ANN 2–2 STR

Form · last six in League Two

ANNAN ATHLETIC

LWLWLL0–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

STRANRAER

DWWWWD2–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 5–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stranraer	9	+9	17
2	Clyde	9	+5	17
3	Edinburgh City	9	+4	15
4	Elgin City	9	+9	14
5	Spartans	9	+2	12
6	Kelty Hearts	9	−5	12
7	Dumbarton	9	−5	12
8	Forfar Athletic	9	−6	11
9	Annan Athletic	9	−2	9
10	Stirling Albion	9	−11	8