Ross County v Hamilton Academical prediction · League One

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ross CountyDrawHamilton Academical

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Ross County 58%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ross County are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ross County 58%, draw 22%, Hamilton Academical 21%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Ross County v Hamilton AcademicalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Ross County win58%

Draw22%

Hamilton Academical win21%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 7

VenueGlobal Energy Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ross County

Hamilton Academical

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ross county winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:23 · locked at kick-off

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Ross County a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ross County v Hamilton Academical~~2.18 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept~~W6 D0 L0 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 31 v 31~~1 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ross County win

Published at 54%, 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ross County win	58%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Hamilton Academical win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Ross County or draw	79%	–	–
Ross County clean sheet	30%	–	–
Hamilton Academical clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 4.4 3.4 2.6 1 6.5 9.5 5.4 2.3 2 7.8 9.3 5.7 2.4 3 5.6 6.7 4.1 4 3.1 3.7 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ross County down, Hamilton Academical across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 988 League One matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.3% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ross County at home: 4.40 scored, 0.40 conceded a game (last 5). Hamilton Academical away: 2.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.18 goals for Ross County, 1.24 for Hamilton Academical. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HAM 1–2 ROS · HAM 0–0 ROS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept

ROSS COUNTY

WWWWWW8–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 5–0 · 7–1 · 4–0

HAMILTON ACADEMICAL

WWWWWW1–0 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ross County	11	+36	31
2	Hamilton Academical	11	+21	31
3	Montrose	12	−3	19
4	East Kilbride	11	+5	18
5	Airdrie United	12	−9	13
6	Queen of the South	12	−21	13
7	Alloa Athletic	12	−2	12
8	Peterhead	12	−11	10
9	East Fife	12	−7	9
10	Cove Rangers	11	−9	6