Ross County v Airdrie United prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Ross County 4–0 Airdrie United ROSS COUNTY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ross County win~~70%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.137

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.098

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ross County win at 70%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ross County 70% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–18–13
1′KICK-OFF Ross County v Airdrie United
24′A goal for Ross County on 24′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–10–4
24′We said Ross County at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–10–4
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Ross County 1–0 Airdrie United
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Ross County win: 70% at kick-off, 86% now
28′Ross County score on 27′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
28′We said Ross County at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Ross County 2–0 Airdrie United
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Ross County win: 70% at kick-off, 96% now
40′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–1
45′HALF-TIME Ross County 3–0 Airdrie United
46′SECOND HALF Ross County 3–0 Airdrie United
47′Ross County find the net on 45′. 3–0. 3–0 · 99–0–0
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Ross County 3–0 Airdrie United
48′We said Ross County at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' Ross County win: 70% at kick-off, over 99% now
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Airdrie United · On: A. Devine · Off: C. Burnside
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Airdrie United · On: D. Mebude · Off: R. Tumilty
54′A goal for Ross County on 54′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Ross County 4–0 Airdrie United
55′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
56′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Airdrie United · On: K. Boateng · Off: D. MacDonald
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Ross County · On: R. Diack · Off: B. Graham
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Airdrie United · On: K. Taylor · Off: G. Gallagher
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ross County · On: A. Emslie · Off: R. Chin
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ross County · On: J. Lindsay · Off: R. Docherty
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ross County · On: J. Turner · Off: K. Phillips
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Airdrie United
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Ross County · On: L. Reid · Off: C. Randall
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Airdrie United · On: T. Pickford · Off: J. Gentles
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Ross County
FTFULL TIME Ross County 4–0 Airdrie United
FTRoss County 4–0 Airdrie United · Ross County win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ross County are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ross County 70%, draw 18%, Airdrie United 12%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Ross County v Airdrie UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ross County win70%

Draw18%

Airdrie United win12%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueGlobal Energy Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ross County

Airdrie United

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ross county winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

70% The market75%

Us70%

~~Market~~75%

We make Ross County a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ross County v Airdrie United~~2.62 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 28 v 13~~1 v 5

~~The market · Ross County win~~75% · ours 70%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ross County win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ross County win	70%	75%	−5
Draw	18%	16%	+2
Airdrie United win	12%	10%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	69%	67%	+2
Both teams to score	59%	53%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	88%	85%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	49%	48%	+1
Ross County or draw	88%	90%	−2
Ross County clean sheet	37%	–	–
Airdrie United clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 8.9%

0123450 3.7 2.2 1 6.5 7.8 3.6 2 8.9 8.8 4.5 3 7.6 7.5 3.8 4 5.0 4.9 2.5 5 2.7 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Ross County down, Airdrie United across0–5 goals a side shown (94.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 984 League One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.57 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ross County at home: 4.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 4). Airdrie United away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.62 goals for Ross County, 1.02 for Airdrie United. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.57

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~AIR 1–3 ROS · AIR 0–3 ROS · ROS 0–4 AIR · AIR 0–1 ROS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept

ROSS COUNTY

DWWWWW2–2 · 8–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 5–0 · 7–1

AIRDRIE UNITED

LWWWDL1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ross County	10	+32	28
2	Hamilton Academical	10	+20	28
3	East Kilbride	11	+5	18
4	Montrose	11	−6	16
5	Airdrie United	11	−5	13
6	Alloa Athletic	11	−1	12
7	Peterhead	11	−8	10
8	Queen of the South	11	−22	10
9	East Fife	11	−6	9
10	Cove Rangers	11	−9	6