Queen of the South v Ross County prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Queen of the South 1–7 Ross County ROSS COUNTY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ross County win~~64%

~~The market said~~74%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.191

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.105

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ross County win at 64%.
1′Much as we predicted: Ross County was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 17–19–64
1′KICK-OFF Queen of the South v Ross County
4′Ross County score on 4′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 7–10–83
4′We published Ross County at 64%. Our model now makes it 83%. 0–1 · 7–10–83
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Queen of the South 0–1 Ross County
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Ross County win: 64% at kick-off, 83% now
8′Ross County find the net on 8′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–5–93
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Queen of the South 0–2 Ross County
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Ross County win: 64% at kick-off, 93% now
9′We published Ross County at 64%. Our model now makes it 93%. 0–2 · 2–5–93
11′A goal for Ross County on 10′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–98
11′We published Ross County at 64%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–3 · 0–1–98
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Queen of the South 0–3 Ross County
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Ross County win: 64% at kick-off, 98% now
23′Ross County score on 23′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
23′We published Ross County at 64%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–4 · 0–0–100
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Queen of the South 0–4 Ross County
30′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
44′Ross County find the net on 43′. 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
44′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
44′⚽ GOAL · 43' Queen of the South 0–5 Ross County
45′HALF-TIME Queen of the South 0–5 Ross County
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Queen of the South · On: R. Ellis · Off: J. Stott
46′SECOND HALF Queen of the South 0–5 Ross County
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' R. Chin · Ross County
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Ross County
69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Ross County · On: R. Diack · Off: K. Phillips
70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Ross County · On: A. Emslie · Off: L. McCarvel
71′A goal for Queen of the South on 70′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
71′6 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
71′⚽ GOAL · 70' Queen of the South 1–5 Ross County
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Queen of the South
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Ross County
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ross County · On: J. Reid · Off: L. Strapp
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ross County · On: J. Lindsay · Off: R. Chin
81′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ross County · On: J. Turner · Off: R. Docherty
82′Ross County score on 82′ to make it 1–6. 1–6 · 0–0–100
82′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 1–6 · 0–0–100
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Queen of the South 1–6 Ross County
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Queen of the South
85′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Queen of the South · On: C. Coughlin · Off: N. Clark
86′Ross County find the net on 85′. 1–7. 1–7 · 0–0–100
86′8 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–7 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Queen of the South 1–7 Ross County
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Queen of the South
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Queen of the South · On: B. Dair · Off: A. Hutton
FTFULL TIME Queen of the South 1–7 Ross County
FTQueen of the South 1–7 Ross County · Ross County win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ross County are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Queen of the South 17%, draw 19%, Ross County 64%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Queen of the South v Ross CountyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Queen of the South win17%

Draw19%

Ross County win64%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenuePalmerston Park

Line-ups

Queen of the South

Ross County

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Queen of the South

Ross County

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · the Scottish Challenge Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Queen of the South

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Mehmet

2 C. Goldie

15 N. Rogerson

12 S. Want

3 T. Charters

8 Z. MacKenzie

4 J. Stott

7 L. Smith

10 N. Clark

20 A. Hutton

9 C. Young

Coach · Nicky Clark

Substitutes

34 · S. Petry

11 · B. Dair

14 · B. Johnstone

16 · C. Coughlin

17 · R. Ellis

19 · B. Luissint

27 · J. Kelly

25 · B. Gray

32 · R. McColm

Ross County

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Foster

6 C. Randall

4 A. Wright

15 D. Smith

3 L. Strapp

7 R. Chin

16 C. Hamilton

23 R. Docherty

19 L. McCarvel

11 K. Phillips

9 B. Graham

Coach · Stuart Kettlewell

Substitutes

30 · N. Suman

5 · L. Reid

10 · J. Lindsay

17 · R. Diack

20 · J. Turner

22 · A. Emslie

28 · J. Williamson

43 · J. Reid

45 · C. Brown

Our number · ross county winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

64% The market74%

Us64%

~~Market~~74%

We make Ross County a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 74%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Queen of the South v Ross County~~1.22 – 2.52

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 10 v 25~~6 v 1

~~The market · Ross County win~~74% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ross County win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 74% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Queen of the South win	17%	10%	+7
Draw	19%	17%	+2
Ross County win	64%	74%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	71%	68%	+3
Both teams to score	64%	55%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	89%	85%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	51%	49%	+2
Queen of the South or draw	36%	26%	+10
Queen of the South clean sheet	9%	–	–
Ross County clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.9%

0123450 3.4 5.5 7.5 6.2 3.9 2.11 2.4 8.1 8.9 7.3 4.6 2.42 4.5 5.4 4.4 2.8 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Queen of the South down, Ross County across0–5 goals a side shown (94.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 979 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Queen of the South at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ross County away: 2.60 scored, 0.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Queen of the South, 2.52 for Ross County. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ROS 8–0 QUE · QUE 0–1 ROS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug

QUEEN OF THE SOUTH

WDLLWW2–1 · 1–1 · 0–8 · 1–4 · 4–3 · 1–0

ROSS COUNTY

WDWWWW4–0 · 2–2 · 8–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ross County	9	+26	25
2	Hamilton Academical	9	+19	25
3	East Kilbride	10	+5	17
4	Montrose	10	−6	15
5	Airdrie United	10	−4	13
6	Queen of the South	10	−16	10
7	East Fife	10	−3	9
8	Alloa Athletic	10	−4	9
9	Peterhead	10	−10	7
10	Cove Rangers	10	−7	6