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Peterhead v Queen of the South

Peterhead

0–1Full time

Queen of the South

League One · SAT 10 OCT · Balmoor

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Peterhead 0–1 Queen of the South QUEEN OF THE SOUTH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Queen of the South win~~41%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.520

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.752

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Queen of the South win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Queen of the South 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 34–23–42
1′KICK-OFF Peterhead v Queen of the South
23′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Queen of the South
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Peterhead
35′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Queen of the South
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Peterhead
45′HALF-TIME Peterhead 0–0 Queen of the South
46′SECOND HALF Peterhead 0–0 Queen of the South
56′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Peterhead · On: S. Ross · Off: L. Keir
58′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Peterhead
62′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Peterhead · On: T. Davies-Browne · Off: C. Dunne
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Peterhead
81′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Peterhead
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Peterhead
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Queen of the South · On: A. Hutton · Off: C. Coughlin
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Peterhead 0–1 Queen of the South
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Peterhead
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' A. McCarthy · Peterhead
FTFULL TIME Peterhead 0–1 Queen of the South
FTPeterhead 0–1 Queen of the South · Queen of the South win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Peterhead win34%

Draw25%

Queen of the South win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Balmoor

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Peterhead

Formation not confirmed

31 C. Hepburn

6 B. Yule

5 J. Brown

4 A. Graham

11 C. Dunne

21 D. Forrest

8 A. McCarthy

18 Z. To

17 C. Smith

7 L. Keir

9 M. Megginson

Coach · Jordon Brown

Substitutes

1 · J. Newman

3 · T. Davies-Browne

10 · B. Mcluckie

15 · J. Stokes

24 · J. Searle

34 · R. Tekle

22 · S. Ross

46 · J. Kerr

2 · D. Strachan

Queen of the South

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Mehmet

2 C. Goldie

15 N. Rogerson

12 S. Want

3 T. Charters

7 L. Smith

4 J. Stott

8 Z. MacKenzie

16 C. Coughlin

10 N. Clark

9 C. Young

Coach · Nicky Clark

Substitutes

34 · S. Petry

11 · B. Dair

5 · C. McQueen

17 · R. Ellis

18 · A. Davis

19 · B. Luissint

20 · A. Hutton

25 · B. Gray

14 · B. Johnstone

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Peterhead

Formation not confirmed

31 C. Hepburn

6 B. Yule

5 J. Brown

4 A. Graham

11 C. Dunne

21 D. Forrest

8 A. McCarthy

18 Z. To

17 C. Smith

7 L. Keir

9 M. Megginson

Coach · Jordon Brown

Substitutes

1 · J. Newman

3 · T. Davies-Browne

10 · B. Mcluckie

15 · J. Stokes

24 · J. Searle

34 · R. Tekle

22 · S. Ross

46 · J. Kerr

2 · D. Strachan

Queen of the South

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Mehmet

2 C. Goldie

15 N. Rogerson

12 S. Want

3 T. Charters

7 L. Smith

4 J. Stott

8 Z. MacKenzie

16 C. Coughlin

10 N. Clark

9 C. Young

Coach · Nicky Clark

Substitutes

34 · S. Petry

11 · B. Dair

5 · C. McQueen

17 · R. Ellis

18 · A. Davis

19 · B. Luissint

20 · A. Hutton

25 · B. Gray

14 · B. Johnstone

Our number · queen of the south winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

41% The market30%

Us41%

~~Market~~30%

We make Queen of the South a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · queen of the south win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 27% to 30% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Peterhead win	34%	44%	−10
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Queen of the South win	41%	30%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	62%	59%	+3
Both teams to score	64%	61%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	84%	79%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	41%	39%	+2
Peterhead or draw	59%	70%	−11
Peterhead clean sheet	19%	–	–
Queen of the South clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.2 5.9 5.8 3.3 1 5.2 11.1 8.5 4.9 2.1 2 4.6 7.6 6.4 3.7 3 2.4 3.9 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Peterhead down, Queen of the South across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 974 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.1% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.89 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Peterhead at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Queen of the South away: 1.33 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Peterhead, 1.71 for Queen of the South. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.89

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~QUE 0–1 PET · PET 1–1 QUE · QUE 0–2 PET · PET 3–0 QUE

Form · last six in League One

PETERHEAD

LDLLLL0–3 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2

QUEEN OF THE SOUTH

LWDLLW1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–8 · 1–4 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ross County	8	+21	22
2	Hamilton Academical	8	+16	22
3	East Kilbride	9	+5	16
4	Montrose	9	−1	15
5	Airdrie United	9	−4	12
6	Alloa Athletic	9	−1	9
7	East Fife	9	−3	8
8	Peterhead	9	−9	7
9	Queen of the South	9	−17	7
10	Cove Rangers	9	−7	5