Peterhead v Cove Rangers prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Peterhead 2–0 Cove Rangers COVE RANGERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cove Rangers win~~44%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.769

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.556

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cove Rangers win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cove Rangers 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 29–28–43
1′KICK-OFF Peterhead v Cove Rangers
6′Little has changed for our model: Cove Rangers 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 29–28–43
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Peterhead
45′HALF-TIME Peterhead 0–0 Cove Rangers
45′SECOND HALF Peterhead 0–0 Cove Rangers
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Cove Rangers · On: J. Teasdale · Off: D. Oladipo
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Cove Rangers win 35%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Cove Rangers win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Cove Rangers
53′We said Cove Rangers at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 24–44–32
53′A goal for Peterhead on 53′. 0–0 · 24–44–32
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 25–39–35
55′We said Cove Rangers at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–0 · 69–23–8
55′⚽ GOAL · 53' Peterhead 1–0 Cove Rangers
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Cove Rangers win: 44% at kick-off, 8% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Peterhead win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 23%)
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Cove Rangers · On: E. Oppong · Off: J. Chalmers
68′We said Cove Rangers at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Cove Rangers win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
68′🟥 RED CARD · 68' Cove Rangers
69′Cove Rangers are down to ten from 68′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 76–20–4
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Peterhead
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Cove Rangers
70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Peterhead · On: S. Ross · Off: R. Tekle
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' C. Hepburn · Peterhead
79′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
79′78′: M. Megginson on the scoresheet for Peterhead, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Peterhead 2–0 Cove Rangers
79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Cove Rangers · On: A. Francis-Burrell · Off: C. Maguire
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Peterhead · On: B. Mcluckie · Off: C. Smith
86′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Peterhead · On: L. Keir · Off: M. Megginson
86′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Peterhead · On: Z. To · Off: D. Forrest
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Peterhead · On: J. Stokes · Off: B. Yule
FTFULL TIME Peterhead 2–0 Cove Rangers
FTPeterhead 2–0 Cove Rangers · Cove Rangers win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cove Rangers are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Peterhead 29%, draw 27%, Cove Rangers 44%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Peterhead v Cove RangersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Peterhead win29%

Draw27%

Cove Rangers win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueBalmoor

Line-ups

Peterhead

Cove Rangers

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Peterhead

Cove Rangers

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · the Scottish Challenge Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Peterhead	10	−10	7
10	Cove Rangers	10	−7	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Peterhead

Formation not confirmed

31 C. Hepburn

4 A. Graham

5 J. Brown

46 J. Kerr

2 D. Strachan

21 D. Forrest

6 B. Yule

8 A. McCarthy

34 R. Tekle

9 M. Megginson

17 C. Smith

Coach · Jordon Brown

Substitutes

1 · J. Newman

3 · T. Davies-Browne

10 · B. Mcluckie

15 · J. Stokes

24 · J. Searle

18 · Z. To

7 · L. Keir

22 · S. Ross

29 · B. Luyeye

Cove Rangers

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Mutch

15 A. Darge

7 R. Harrington

6 J. Mercer

2 L. Bisland

14 J. Chalmers

10 M. Barry

3 D. Ross

77 C. Maguire

26 J. White

9 D. Oladipo

Coach · Paul Hartley

Substitutes

21 · B. Demus

8 · A. Francis-Burrell

16 · J. Teasdale

18 · E. Oppong

25 · M. Milnes

32 · L. Parker

Our number · cove rangers winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market34%

Us44%

~~Market~~34%

We make Cove Rangers a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Peterhead v Cove Rangers~~1.19 – 1.52

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 6~~9 v 10

~~The market · Cove Rangers win~~34% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cove Rangers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Peterhead win	29%	39%	−10
Draw	27%	27%	0
Cove Rangers win	44%	34%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	51%	55%	−4
Both teams to score	55%	59%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	34%	−5
Peterhead or draw	56%	66%	−10
Peterhead clean sheet	22%	–	–
Cove Rangers clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.1 9.0 7.6 3.9 1 6.9 12.9 8.8 4.5 2 4.8 7.0 5.3 2.7 3 2.9 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Peterhead down, Cove Rangers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 979 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.22 goals a meeting; 7 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Peterhead at home: 0.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Cove Rangers away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Peterhead, 1.52 for Cove Rangers. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.22

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~COV 3–0 PET · COV 2–1 PET · PET 0–4 COV · COV 1–2 PET

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug

PETERHEAD

DLLLLL1–1 · 0–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1

COVE RANGERS

LDLLLD0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–4 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ross County	9	+26	25
2	Hamilton Academical	9	+19	25
3	East Kilbride	10	+5	17
4	Montrose	10	−6	15
5	Airdrie United	10	−4	13
6	Queen of the South	10	−16	10
7	East Fife	10	−3	9
8	Alloa Athletic	10	−4	9
9	Peterhead	10	−10	7
10	Cove Rangers	10	−7	6