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Montrose v Ross County

Montrose

0–5Full time

Ross County

League One · SAT 10 OCT · Links Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Montrose 0–5 Ross County ROSS COUNTY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ross County win~~61%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.225

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.187

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ross County win at 61%.
3′Much as we predicted: Ross County was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 19–19–62
3′KICK-OFF Montrose v Ross County
20′19′ and it is 0–1: Ross County have scored. 0–1 · 7–13–81
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Montrose 0–1 Ross County
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Montrose
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Ross County win: 61% at kick-off, 81% now
25′Ross County find the net on 25′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–5–94
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Montrose 0–2 Ross County
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Ross County win: 61% at kick-off, 94% now
29′K. Phillips scores for Ross County on 28′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
31′K. Phillips scores for Ross County on 28′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
31′⚽ GOAL · 28' Montrose 0–3 Ross County · K. Phillips
37′We published Ross County at 61%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
40′39′ and it is 0–3: Montrose have scored. 0–3 · 0–1–99
40′PENALTY MISSED · 39' Montrose
45′HALF-TIME Montrose 0–3 Ross County
46′SECOND HALF Montrose 0–3 Ross County
54′⚽ GOAL · 52' Montrose 0–4 Ross County · B. Graham
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Montrose · On: D. Glass · Off: K. Freeman
61′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Montrose · On: J. Sutherland · Off: B. Lyons
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Ross County
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Montrose
70′🟨 YELLOW · 66' G. Oliver · Montrose
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Montrose · On: F. Donaldson · Off: C. Oosenbrugh
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Montrose · On: H. Craig · Off: F. Duffy
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Montrose 0–5 Ross County
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Montrose 0–5 Ross County
76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ross County · On: J. Lindsay · Off: R. Chin
76′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Ross County · On: J. Turner · Off: C. Hamilton
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Montrose · On: E. Loudon · Off: G. Oliver
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Montrose 0–5 Ross County · D. Smith (assist A. Wright)
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ross County · On: A. Forrester · Off: K. Phillips
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Montrose
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Ross County
FTFULL TIME Montrose 0–5 Ross County
FTMontrose 0–5 Ross County · Ross County win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Montrose win18%

Draw20%

Ross County win61%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Links Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Montrose

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Gill

15 C. Oosenbrugh

2 R. Williamson

4 A. Quinn

5 S. McGinty

3 F. Duffy

12 K. Freeman

8 J. Barjonas

6 S. Byrne

11 B. Lyons

19 G. Oliver

Coach · Stewart Petrie

Substitutes

21 · M. Campbell

7 · G. Webster

10 · D. Glass

16 · J. Sutherland

17 · F. Donaldson

18 · A. Taylor

22 · H. Craig

24 · F. Simpson

9 · E. Loudon

Ross County

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Foster

6 C. Randall

4 A. Wright

15 D. Smith

3 L. Strapp

7 R. Chin

16 C. Hamilton

23 R. Docherty

19 L. McCarvel

11 K. Phillips

9 B. Graham

Coach · Stuart Kettlewell

Substitutes

30 · N. Suman

2 · A. Forrester

10 · J. Lindsay

17 · R. Diack

20 · J. Turner

22 · A. Emslie

28 · J. Williamson

43 · J. Reid

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Montrose

Formation not confirmed

1 C. Gill

15 C. Oosenbrugh

2 R. Williamson

4 A. Quinn

5 S. McGinty

3 F. Duffy

12 K. Freeman

8 J. Barjonas

6 S. Byrne

11 B. Lyons

19 G. Oliver

Coach · Stewart Petrie

Substitutes

21 · M. Campbell

7 · G. Webster

10 · D. Glass

16 · J. Sutherland

17 · F. Donaldson

18 · A. Taylor

22 · H. Craig

24 · F. Simpson

9 · E. Loudon

Ross County

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Foster

6 C. Randall

4 A. Wright

15 D. Smith

3 L. Strapp

7 R. Chin

16 C. Hamilton

23 R. Docherty

19 L. McCarvel

11 K. Phillips

9 B. Graham

Coach · Stuart Kettlewell

Substitutes

30 · N. Suman

2 · A. Forrester

10 · J. Lindsay

17 · R. Diack

20 · J. Turner

22 · A. Emslie

28 · J. Williamson

43 · J. Reid

Our number · ross county winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

61% The market65%

Us61%

~~Market~~65%

We make Ross County a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ross county win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Montrose win	18%	14%	+4
Draw	20%	21%	0
Ross County win	61%	65%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	69%	62%	+8
Both teams to score	64%	55%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	88%	82%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	48%	41%	+7
Montrose or draw	39%	35%	+4
Montrose clean sheet	10%	–	–
Ross County clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.1%

0123450 3.8 5.8 7.6 5.9 3.6 1 2.8 8.7 9.1 7.1 4.3 2.12 2.2 4.9 5.6 4.4 2.6 3 2.1 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Montrose down, Ross County across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 974 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.1% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Montrose at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ross County away: 2.00 scored, 0.75 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Montrose, 2.38 for Ross County. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ROS 2–1 MON

Form · last six in League One

MONTROSE

WWWWWL3–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

ROSS COUNTY

WWDWWW3–1 · 4–0 · 2–2 · 8–0 · 2–0 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ross County	8	+21	22
2	Hamilton Academical	8	+16	22
3	East Kilbride	9	+5	16
4	Montrose	9	−1	15
5	Airdrie United	9	−4	12
6	Alloa Athletic	9	−1	9
7	East Fife	9	−3	8
8	Peterhead	9	−9	7
9	Queen of the South	9	−17	7
10	Cove Rangers	9	−7	5