Montrose v Peterhead prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Montrose 3–0 Peterhead MONTROSE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Montrose win~~46%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.431

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.422

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Montrose win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: Montrose was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–25–28
1′KICK-OFF Montrose v Peterhead
3′Montrose find the net on 3′. 0–0 · 46–26–28
4′We published Montrose at 46%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–16–13
4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Montrose 1–0 Peterhead
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Montrose win: 46% at kick-off, 72% now
10′A goal for Montrose on 9′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 88–8–4
10′We published Montrose at 46%. Our model now makes it 88%. 2–0 · 88–8–4
10′⚽ GOAL · 9' Montrose 2–0 Peterhead
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Montrose win: 46% at kick-off, 88% now
23′We published Montrose at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–0 · 90–7–3
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Peterhead
45′HALF-TIME Montrose 2–0 Peterhead
45′SECOND HALF Montrose 2–0 Peterhead
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Montrose · On: H. Craig · Off: G. Oliver
47′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 2–0 · 93–6–1
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Montrose
55′We published Montrose at 46%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Peterhead · On: J. Searle · Off: R. Tekle
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Peterhead · On: S. Ross · Off: D. Forrest Corrected
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Montrose win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Montrose
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Peterhead · On: L. Keir · Off: J. Kerr
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Peterhead · On: Z. To · Off: C. Smith
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Montrose · On: E. Loudon · Off: J. Sutherland
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Peterhead · On: B. Mcluckie · Off: D. Strachan
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Montrose · On: G. Webster · Off: J. Barjonas
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Peterhead
83′We published Montrose at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′Montrose score on 85′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Peterhead
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Montrose 3–0 Peterhead
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Montrose · On: D. Glass · Off: K. Freeman
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Montrose · On: K. Bertie · Off: B. Lyons
FTFULL TIME Montrose 3–0 Peterhead
FTMontrose 3–0 Peterhead · Montrose win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Montrose are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Montrose 46%, draw 25%, Peterhead 28%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Montrose v PeterheadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Montrose win46%

Draw25%

Peterhead win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueLinks Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Montrose

Peterhead

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Montrose	11	−6	16
7	Peterhead	11	−8	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · montrose winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

46% The market47%

Us46%

~~Market~~47%

We make Montrose a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Montrose v Peterhead~~1.76 – 1.33

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 16 v 10~~4 v 7

~~The market · Montrose win~~47% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Montrose win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Montrose win	46%	47%	−1
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Peterhead win	28%	27%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	59%	54%	+5
Both teams to score	61%	57%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	76%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	37%	33%	+4
Montrose or draw	72%	73%	−1
Montrose clean sheet	27%	–	–
Peterhead clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.9 5.2 4.1 1 7.1 11.5 6.9 3.1 2 7.0 9.1 6.0 2.7 3 4.1 5.3 3.5 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Montrose down, Peterhead across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 984 League One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Montrose at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Peterhead away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Montrose, 1.33 for Peterhead. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PET 0–3 MON · PET 1–1 MON · MON 1–1 PET · PET 1–1 MON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept

MONTROSE

WWWLLD3–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–5 · 1–1

PETERHEAD

LLLLLW0–3 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ross County	10	+32	28
2	Hamilton Academical	10	+20	28
3	East Kilbride	11	+5	18
4	Montrose	11	−6	16
5	Airdrie United	11	−5	13
6	Alloa Athletic	11	−1	12
7	Peterhead	11	−8	10
8	Queen of the South	11	−22	10
9	East Fife	11	−6	9
10	Cove Rangers	11	−9	6