Hamilton Academical v East Fife prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Hamilton Academical 2–1 East Fife HAMILTON ACADEMICAL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hamilton Academical win~~67%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.170

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.134

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hamilton Academical win at 67%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Hamilton Academical 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 67–22–12
1′KICK-OFF Hamilton Academical v East Fife
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Hamilton Academical win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
37′Hamilton Academical score on 37′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–10–2
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Hamilton Academical 1–0 East Fife
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Hamilton Academical win: 67% at kick-off, 87% now
38′We said Hamilton Academical at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–10–2
38′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 87–10–2
45′HALF-TIME Hamilton Academical 1–0 East Fife
45′SECOND HALF Hamilton Academical 1–0 East Fife
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' East Fife · On: M. Rollo · Off: D. Gaston
55′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Hamilton Academical · On: K. Orsi · Off: S. Bannigan
62′We said Hamilton Academical at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Hamilton Academical 2–0 East Fife
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Hamilton Academical win: 67% at kick-off, 99% now
63′Hamilton Academical find the net on 63′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' East Fife · On: C. Beattie · Off: R. Peggie
69′SUBSTITUTION · 66' East Fife · On: M. Gaffney · Off: C. Dow
75′We said Hamilton Academical at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
76′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Hamilton Academical · On: B. Black · Off: S. McKinstry
77′We said Hamilton Academical at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–1 · 93–7–0
77′A goal for East Fife on 77′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 93–7–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Hamilton Academical 2–1 East Fife
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Hamilton Academical win: 67% at kick-off, 93% now
78′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 93–7–0
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Hamilton Academical
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Hamilton Academical win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 82' East Fife · On: T. Skeen Hamilton · Off: J. Healy
FTFULL TIME Hamilton Academical 2–1 East Fife
FTHamilton Academical 2–1 East Fife · Hamilton Academical win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hamilton Academical are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hamilton Academical 67%, draw 22%, East Fife 12%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Hamilton Academical v East FifeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Hamilton Academical win67%

Draw22%

East Fife win12%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueZLX Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hamilton Academical

East Fife

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Hamilton Academical	10	+20	28
9	East Fife	11	−6	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · hamilton academical winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

67% The market71%

Us67%

~~Market~~71%

We make Hamilton Academical a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Hamilton Academical v East Fife~~2.04 – 0.71

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug~~W6 D0 L0 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 28 v 9~~2 v 9

~~The market · Hamilton Academical win~~71% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hamilton Academical win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Hamilton Academical win	67%	71%	−4
Draw	22%	19%	+3
East Fife win	12%	10%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	56%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	46%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	78%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	30%	36%	−6
Hamilton Academical or draw	88%	90%	−2
Hamilton Academical clean sheet	50%	–	–
East Fife clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.1%

0123450 7.7 3.8 1 12.3 10.0 3.3 2 13.1 9.1 3.3 3 8.9 6.1 2.2 4 4.6 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Hamilton Academical down, East Fife across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 984 League One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Hamilton Academical at home: 2.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). East Fife away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.04 goals for Hamilton Academical, 0.71 for East Fife. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~EAS 0–0 HAM · EAS 0–3 HAM · HAM 1–0 EAS · EAS 1–1 HAM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug

HAMILTON ACADEMICAL

WWWWWW1–0 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1

EAST FIFE

DDLLDL2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ross County	10	+32	28
2	Hamilton Academical	10	+20	28
3	East Kilbride	11	+5	18
4	Montrose	11	−6	16
5	Airdrie United	11	−5	13
6	Alloa Athletic	11	−1	12
7	Peterhead	11	−8	10
8	Queen of the South	11	−22	10
9	East Fife	11	−6	9
10	Cove Rangers	11	−9	6