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East Kilbride v Airdrie United

East Kilbride

2–2Full time

Airdrie United

League One · SAT 10 OCT · K-Park Training Academy

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

East Kilbride 2–2 Airdrie United EAST KILBRIDE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said East Kilbride win~~47%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.832

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.844

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said East Kilbride win at 47%.
3′Little has changed for our model: East Kilbride 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
3′KICK-OFF East Kilbride v Airdrie United
11′A goal for East Kilbride on 12′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 46–26–27
14′⚽ GOAL · 12' East Kilbride 2–0 Airdrie United
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' East Kilbride 2–0 Airdrie United
16′13′ and it is 2–0: C. McGuffie on the scoresheet for East Kilbride. 2–0 · 90–7–3
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' East Kilbride win: 47% at kick-off, 90% now
20′We said East Kilbride at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 91%. 2–0 · 91–7–3
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' East Kilbride
41′Airdrie United ahead on 40′ through J. Gentles. 2–1. 2–1 · 75–18–7
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' East Kilbride 2–1 Airdrie United · J. Gentles
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' East Kilbride win: 47% at kick-off, 75% now
44′We said East Kilbride at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–18–6
45′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 75–18–6
45′HALF-TIME East Kilbride 2–1 Airdrie United
46′SECOND HALF East Kilbride 2–1 Airdrie United
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' East Kilbride · On: E. East · Off: M. Robertson
59′SUBSTITUTION · 56' East Kilbride · On: O. Calder · Off: L. McGrattan
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' East Kilbride 2–2 Airdrie United
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Airdrie United · On: D. Mebude · Off: J. Gentles
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Airdrie United · On: M. Yates · Off: E. Simpson
65′⚽ GOAL · 63' East Kilbride 2–2 Airdrie United · G. Gallagher (assist C. Smith)
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' East Kilbride
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' East Kilbride · On: C. McKenzie · Off: R. Armstrong
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Airdrie United
75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Airdrie United
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' East Kilbride
76′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Airdrie United
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Airdrie United · On: R. Tumilty · Off: G. Gallagher
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Airdrie United · On: R. Mahon · Off: L. Gibson
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Airdrie United
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' East Kilbride
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Airdrie United · On: D. Iserhienrhien · Off: C. Burnside
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' East Kilbride
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Airdrie United
FTFULL TIME East Kilbride 2–2 Airdrie United
FTEast Kilbride 2–2 Airdrie United · East Kilbride win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

East Kilbride win47%

Draw26%

Airdrie United win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · K-Park Training Academy

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

East Kilbride

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Kelly

5 S. Fagan

24 D. O'Connor

2 A. Steele

23 M. Robertson

8 J. Balde

26 R. Armstrong

36 S. Culbert

11 C. McGuffie

9 C. Elliott

7 L. McGrattan

Coach · Michael Kennedy

Substitutes

21 · M. Gill

6 · L. Kennedy

12 · E. Ross

14 · C. McKenzie

15 · B. Maguire

16 · E. East

17 · R. Dargie

19 · O. Calder

22 · A. Smith

Airdrie United

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Sneddon

5 S. Fisher

31 D. Gallagher

4 C. Ross

2 D. MacDonald

8 G. Gallagher

6 E. Simpson

16 C. Smith

27 L. Gibson

25 J. Gentles

22 C. Burnside

Coach · –

Substitutes

21 · R. Adams

7 · R. Mahon

9 · D. Mebude

10 · M. Yates

12 · K. Boateng

14 · A. Devine

24 · R. Tumilty

29 · D. Iserhienrhien

33 · K. Taylor

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

East Kilbride

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Kelly

5 S. Fagan

24 D. O'Connor

2 A. Steele

23 M. Robertson

8 J. Balde

26 R. Armstrong

36 S. Culbert

11 C. McGuffie

9 C. Elliott

7 L. McGrattan

Coach · Michael Kennedy

Substitutes

21 · M. Gill

6 · L. Kennedy

12 · E. Ross

14 · C. McKenzie

15 · B. Maguire

16 · E. East

17 · R. Dargie

19 · O. Calder

22 · A. Smith

Airdrie United

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Sneddon

5 S. Fisher

31 D. Gallagher

4 C. Ross

2 D. MacDonald

8 G. Gallagher

6 E. Simpson

16 C. Smith

27 L. Gibson

25 J. Gentles

22 C. Burnside

Coach · –

Substitutes

21 · R. Adams

7 · R. Mahon

9 · D. Mebude

10 · M. Yates

12 · K. Boateng

14 · A. Devine

24 · R. Tumilty

29 · D. Iserhienrhien

33 · K. Taylor

Our number · east kilbride winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

47% The market47%

Us47%

~~Market~~47%

We make East Kilbride a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · east kilbride win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 49% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
East Kilbride win	47%	47%	0
Draw	26%	26%	0
Airdrie United win	27%	27%	0
Over 2.5 goals	54%	54%	0
Both teams to score	56%	57%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	32%	33%	−2
East Kilbride or draw	73%	73%	0
East Kilbride clean sheet	31%	–	–
Airdrie United clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.4 6.1 4.3 1 8.6 12.2 6.6 2.7 2 7.8 9.0 5.3 2.2 3 4.3 5.0 3.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+East Kilbride down, Airdrie United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 974 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.1% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

East Kilbride at home: 2.75 scored, 0.75 conceded a game (last 4). Airdrie United away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for East Kilbride, 1.20 for Airdrie United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~AIR 1–1 EAS

Form · last six in League One

EAST KILBRIDE

LLLWWW0–3 · 0–4 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 3–0

AIRDRIE UNITED

LDLWWW1–3 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ross County	8	+21	22
2	Hamilton Academical	8	+16	22
3	East Kilbride	9	+5	16
4	Montrose	9	−1	15
5	Airdrie United	9	−4	12
6	Alloa Athletic	9	−1	9
7	East Fife	9	−3	8
8	Peterhead	9	−9	7
9	Queen of the South	9	−17	7
10	Cove Rangers	9	−7	5