East Fife v Alloa Athletic prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

East Fife 0–3 Alloa Athletic ALLOA ATHLETIC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alloa Athletic win~~43%

~~The market said~~30%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.479

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.749

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alloa Athletic win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Alloa Athletic 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 27–30–43
1′KICK-OFF East Fife v Alloa Athletic
7′Little has changed for our model: Alloa Athletic 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 27–31–43
11′SUBSTITUTION · 7' Alloa Athletic · On: G. Marchant · Off: A. Crilly
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Alloa Athletic
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' East Fife
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' East Fife
40′We said Alloa Athletic at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 6–18–76
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' East Fife 0–1 Alloa Athletic
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Alloa Athletic win: 43% at kick-off, 76% now
41′Alloa Athletic score on 40′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–18–76
41′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 6–18–76
43′41′: O. Foster on the scoresheet for Alloa Athletic, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 5–18–77
45′HALF-TIME East Fife 0–1 Alloa Athletic
46′SECOND HALF East Fife 0–1 Alloa Athletic
56′We said Alloa Athletic at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' East Fife
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Alloa Athletic win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Alloa Athletic · On: C. Waters · Off: S. Scougall
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' East Fife · On: C. Dow · Off: L. Newton
70′We said Alloa Athletic at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
77′Alloa Athletic find the net on 77′. 0–1 · 1–10–89
78′We said Alloa Athletic at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' East Fife 0–2 Alloa Athletic
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Alloa Athletic win: 43% at kick-off, 99% now
81′We said Alloa Athletic at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
86′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' East Fife 0–3 Alloa Athletic
87′A goal for Alloa Athletic on 86′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
88′SUBSTITUTION · 84' East Fife · On: T. Milne · Off: H. Seisay
88′SUBSTITUTION · 84' East Fife · On: M. Gaffney · Off: C. Beattie
90′0–3 at the end. Our 43% on Alloa Athletic comes in. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME East Fife 0–3 Alloa Athletic
FTEast Fife 0–3 Alloa Athletic · Alloa Athletic win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alloa Athletic are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: East Fife 27%, draw 30%, Alloa Athletic 43%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on East Fife v Alloa AthleticBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

East Fife win27%

Draw30%

Alloa Athletic win43%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueMGM Timber Bayview Stadium

Line-ups

East Fife

Alloa Athletic

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

East Fife

Alloa Athletic

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · the Scottish Challenge Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	East Fife	10	−3	9
8	Alloa Athletic	10	−4	9

In the news

from the pressAll ›

East Fife sack Campbell as Lennon steps in at DumbartonBBC Sport · 14 Oct 18:16 · East Fife, Dumbarton

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

East Fife

Formation not confirmed

21 M. Rollo

22 E. McLeod

25 H. Seisay

19 A. Munro

3 L. Newton

4 K. Millar

11 J. Healy

17 C. Beattie

23 C. Ballantyne

6 R. Peggie

10 C. Ross

Coach · Dick Campbell

Substitutes

1 · L. Bruce

7 · M. Gaffney

8 · R. Berry

12 · O. Joseph

14 · T. Skeen Hamilton

15 · T. Milne

18 · C. Dow

20 · K. Loughran

Alloa Athletic

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Stewart

24 O. Foster

5 J. McGrath

2 S. Taggart

20 C. O'Donnell

27 A. Crilly

4 S. Hetherington

12 S. Scougall

7 K. Glasgow

28 M. Aitken

17 M. Cameron

Coach · Andy Graham

Substitutes

31 · L. Green

3 · C. Waters

6 · G. Marchant

9 · L. Donnelly

10 · L. Rankin

14 · F. McCafferty

15 · J. Walker

16 · J. Ellison

18 · B. Forbes

Our number · alloa athletic winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 03:57 · locked at kick-off

43% The market30%

Us43%

~~Market~~30%

We make Alloa Athletic a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 30%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · East Fife v Alloa Athletic~~1.00 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D4 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 9 v 9~~7 v 8

~~The market · Alloa Athletic win~~30% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alloa Athletic win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 30% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
East Fife win	27%	41%	−14
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Alloa Athletic win	43%	30%	+13
Over 2.5 goals	41%	48%	−7
Both teams to score	47%	53%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	69%	72%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	21%	28%	−7
East Fife or draw	57%	70%	−13
East Fife clean sheet	27%	–	–
Alloa Athletic clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.2 11.8 8.7 3.9 1 8.4 13.7 8.4 3.8 2 4.8 6.3 4.2 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+East Fife down, Alloa Athletic across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 979 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

East Fife at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Alloa Athletic away: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for East Fife, 1.35 for Alloa Athletic. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALL 0–0 EAS · ALL 2–0 EAS · EAS 0–2 ALL · ALL 1–1 EAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 29 Aug

EAST FIFE

DDDLLD0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–1

ALLOA ATHLETIC

DDLLLL1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ross County	9	+26	25
2	Hamilton Academical	9	+19	25
3	East Kilbride	10	+5	17
4	Montrose	10	−6	15
5	Airdrie United	10	−4	13
6	Queen of the South	10	−16	10
7	East Fife	10	−3	9
8	Alloa Athletic	10	−4	9
9	Peterhead	10	−10	7
10	Cove Rangers	10	−7	6