Cove Rangers v East Kilbride prediction · League One

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · abandoned

East Kilbride are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cove Rangers 32%, draw 27%, East Kilbride 41%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Cove Rangers v East KilbrideBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · abandoned, not graded

Cove Rangers win32%

Draw27%

East Kilbride win41%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueBalmoral Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cove Rangers

East Kilbride

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	East Kilbride	11	+5	18
10	Cove Rangers	11	−9	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · east kilbride winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · abandoned, not graded

41% The market50%

Us41%

~~Market~~50%

We make East Kilbride a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cove Rangers v East Kilbride~~1.30 – 1.51

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 18~~10 v 3

~~The market · East Kilbride win~~50% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · East Kilbride win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cove Rangers win	32%	25%	+7
Draw	27%	25%	+2
East Kilbride win	41%	50%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	53%	59%	−6
Both teams to score	57%	60%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	38%	−7
Cove Rangers or draw	59%	50%	+9
Cove Rangers clean sheet	23%	–	–
East Kilbride clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.5 8.1 6.8 3.5 1 6.8 12.7 8.6 4.4 2 5.2 7.5 5.6 2.8 3 2.3 3.3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cove Rangers down, East Kilbride across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 984 League One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cove Rangers at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). East Kilbride away: 1.20 scored, 1.80 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Cove Rangers, 1.51 for East Kilbride. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~EAS 3–0 COV · COV 3–2 EAS · EAS 3–2 COV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept

COVE RANGERS

DLLLDL1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–4 · 1–1 · 0–2

EAST KILBRIDE

LWWWDD0–1 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ross County	10	+32	28
2	Hamilton Academical	10	+20	28
3	East Kilbride	11	+5	18
4	Montrose	11	−6	16
5	Airdrie United	11	−5	13
6	Alloa Athletic	11	−1	12
7	Peterhead	11	−8	10
8	Queen of the South	11	−22	10
9	East Fife	11	−6	9
10	Cove Rangers	11	−9	6