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Cove Rangers v East Fife

Cove Rangers

1–1Full time

East Fife

League One · SAT 10 OCT · Balmoral Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Cove Rangers 1–1 East Fife COVE RANGERS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Cove Rangers win~~50%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.813

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.780

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cove Rangers win at 50%.
2′Much as we predicted: Cove Rangers was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
2′KICK-OFF Cove Rangers v East Fife
20′SUBSTITUTION · 17' East Fife · On: M. Rollo · Off: D. Gaston
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' East Fife
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' East Fife
40′⚽ GOAL · 41' Cove Rangers 0–0 East Fife
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Cove Rangers 1–0 East Fife
43′Cove Rangers ahead on 41′ through D. Oladipo. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Cove Rangers
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Cove Rangers win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
45′We published Cove Rangers at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' East Fife · On: H. Seisay · Off: B. Easton
47′SECOND HALF Cove Rangers 1–0 East Fife
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Cove Rangers 1–1 East Fife · D. Oladipo
68′⚽ GOAL · 69' Cove Rangers 1–1 East Fife
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' East Fife · On: M. Gaffney · Off: C. Dow Corrected
70′⚽ GOAL · 69' Cove Rangers 1–1 East Fife · C. Beattie
71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' East Fife · On: J. Healy · Off: C. Ballantyne
71′SUBSTITUTION · 64' East Fife · On: N. Austin · Off: M. Bah
71′SUBSTITUTION · 67' East Fife · On: N. Austin · Off: M. Bah Corrected
71′⚽ GOAL · 69' Cove Rangers 1–1 East Fife · C. Beattie
72′SUBSTITUTION · 64' East Fife · On: J. Healy · Off: C. Ballantyne
72′SUBSTITUTION · 64' East Fife · On: N. Austin · Off: M. Bah
72′⚽ GOAL · 69' Cove Rangers 1–1 East Fife · C. Beattie
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Cove Rangers
77′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Cove Rangers · On: E. Oppong · Off: L. Bisland
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' J. Chalmers · Cove Rangers
86′🟨 YELLOW · 87' East Fife
91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Cove Rangers · On: M. Keir · Off: J. White
FTFULL TIME Cove Rangers 1–1 East Fife
FTCove Rangers 1–1 East Fife · Cove Rangers win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Cove Rangers win50%

Draw28%

East Fife win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Balmoral Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Cove Rangers

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Mutch

15 A. Darge

7 R. Harrington

6 J. Mercer

2 L. Bisland

14 J. Chalmers

10 M. Barry

3 D. Ross

77 C. Maguire

9 D. Oladipo

26 J. White

Coach · Paul Hartley

Substitutes

21 · B. Demus

8 · A. Francis-Burrell

12 · M. Keir

16 · J. Teasdale

18 · E. Oppong

20 · A. Fraser

East Fife

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Gaston

22 E. McLeod

19 A. Munro

20 M. Bah

5 B. Easton

3 L. Newton

4 K. Millar

23 C. Ballantyne

17 C. Beattie

10 C. Ross

18 C. Dow

Coach · Dick Campbell

Substitutes

21 · M. Rollo

6 · R. Peggie

7 · M. Gaffney

9 · N. Austin

11 · J. Healy

12 · O. Joseph

14 · T. Skeen Hamilton

15 · T. Milne

25 · H. Seisay

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Cove Rangers

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Mutch

15 A. Darge

7 R. Harrington

6 J. Mercer

2 L. Bisland

14 J. Chalmers

10 M. Barry

3 D. Ross

77 C. Maguire

9 D. Oladipo

26 J. White

Coach · Paul Hartley

Substitutes

21 · B. Demus

8 · A. Francis-Burrell

12 · M. Keir

16 · J. Teasdale

18 · E. Oppong

20 · A. Fraser

East Fife

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Gaston

22 E. McLeod

19 A. Munro

20 M. Bah

5 B. Easton

3 L. Newton

4 K. Millar

23 C. Ballantyne

17 C. Beattie

10 C. Ross

18 C. Dow

Coach · Dick Campbell

Substitutes

21 · M. Rollo

6 · R. Peggie

7 · M. Gaffney

9 · N. Austin

11 · J. Healy

12 · O. Joseph

14 · T. Skeen Hamilton

15 · T. Milne

25 · H. Seisay

Our number · cove rangers winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

50% The market42%

Us50%

~~Market~~42%

We make Cove Rangers a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cove rangers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cove Rangers win	50%	42%	+8
Draw	28%	28%	0
East Fife win	22%	30%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	44%	49%	−5
Both teams to score	47%	54%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	70%	73%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	28%	−6
Cove Rangers or draw	78%	70%	+8
Cove Rangers clean sheet	41%	–	–
East Fife clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 10.4 7.0 3.7 1 12.3 13.0 5.4 2 10.0 8.9 4.1 3 5.1 4.6 2.1 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cove Rangers down, East Fife across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 974 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.1% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 3.56 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cove Rangers at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). East Fife away: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Cove Rangers, 0.91 for East Fife. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.56

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~EAS 2–0 COV · COV 0–0 EAS · EAS 2–1 COV · COV 0–1 EAS

Form · last six in League One

COVE RANGERS

WLDLLL3–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 3–4

EAST FIFE

DDDDLL0–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ross County	8	+21	22
2	Hamilton Academical	8	+16	22
3	East Kilbride	9	+5	16
4	Montrose	9	−1	15
5	Airdrie United	9	−4	12
6	Alloa Athletic	9	−1	9
7	East Fife	9	−3	8
8	Peterhead	9	−9	7
9	Queen of the South	9	−17	7
10	Cove Rangers	9	−7	5