Alloa Athletic v Queen of the South prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Alloa Athletic 0–1 Queen of the South ALLOA ATHLETIC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Alloa Athletic win~~50%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.875

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.933

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Alloa Athletic win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Alloa Athletic 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
1′KICK-OFF Alloa Athletic v Queen of the South
13′We said Alloa Athletic at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–1 · 26–23–52
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Alloa Athletic 0–1 Queen of the South
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Alloa Athletic win: 50% at kick-off, 26% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Queen of the South win is now our likeliest result at 52% (was Alloa Athletic win 48%)
14′Queen of the South find the net on 13′. 0–1. 0–1 · 25–23–52
17′We said Alloa Athletic at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–23–52
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–1 · 20–24–55
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Queen of the South
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Alloa Athletic win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
33′We said Alloa Athletic at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–56
45′HALF-TIME Alloa Athletic 0–1 Queen of the South
45′SECOND HALF Alloa Athletic 0–1 Queen of the South
47′We said Alloa Athletic at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–60
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Alloa Athletic win: 50% at kick-off, 10% now
60′We said Alloa Athletic at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Queen of the South
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Alloa Athletic
72′We said Alloa Athletic at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Alloa Athletic · On: L. Rankin · Off: J. Ellison
76′Alloa Athletic find the net on 75′. 0–1 · 3–18–79
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Alloa Athletic
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Queen of the South
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Queen of the South
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Alloa Athletic win: 50% at kick-off, under 1% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Alloa Athletic · On: L. Donnelly · Off: M. Cameron
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Alloa Athletic · On: B. Forbes · Off: C. Waters
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Queen of the South · On: R. Ellis · Off: C. Young
88′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Queen of the South · On: C. Coughlin · Off: B. Luissint
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Queen of the South · On: A. Davis · Off: N. Clark
94′🟥 RED CARD · 90+4' Alloa Athletic
95′Alloa Athletic are down to ten from 90′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 0–2–98
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Queen of the South
FTFULL TIME Alloa Athletic 0–1 Queen of the South
FTAlloa Athletic 0–1 Queen of the South · Alloa Athletic win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Alloa Athletic are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Alloa Athletic 50%, draw 25%, Queen of the South 25%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Alloa Athletic v Queen of the SouthBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Alloa Athletic win50%

Draw25%

Queen of the South win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueRecreation Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Alloa Athletic

Queen of the South

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish League One

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Alloa Athletic	11	−1	12
8	Queen of the South	11	−22	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · alloa athletic winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

50% The market53%

Us50%

~~Market~~53%

We make Alloa Athletic a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Alloa Athletic v Queen of the South~~1.83 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 10~~6 v 8

~~The market · Alloa Athletic win~~53% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Alloa Athletic win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Alloa Athletic win	50%	53%	−3
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Queen of the South win	25%	23%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	59%	58%	+1
Both teams to score	60%	58%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	37%	0
Alloa Athletic or draw	75%	77%	−2
Alloa Athletic clean sheet	30%	–	–
Queen of the South clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 6.0 4.9 3.6 1 7.6 11.4 6.4 2.7 2 7.8 9.3 5.7 2.4 3 4.7 5.7 3.5 4 2.2 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Alloa Athletic down, Queen of the South across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 984 League One matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.3% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Alloa Athletic at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Queen of the South away: 1.33 scored, 3.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Alloa Athletic, 1.23 for Queen of the South. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~QUE 0–2 ALL · ALL 1–4 QUE · QUE 1–2 ALL · ALL 0–2 QUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 5 Sept

ALLOA ATHLETIC

DLLLLW1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 3–0

QUEEN OF THE SOUTH

DLLWWL1–1 · 0–8 · 1–4 · 4–3 · 1–0 · 1–7

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ross County	10	+32	28
2	Hamilton Academical	10	+20	28
3	East Kilbride	11	+5	18
4	Montrose	11	−6	16
5	Airdrie United	11	−5	13
6	Alloa Athletic	11	−1	12
7	Peterhead	11	−8	10
8	Queen of the South	11	−22	10
9	East Fife	11	−6	9
10	Cove Rangers	11	−9	6