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Alloa Athletic v Hamilton Academical
League One · SAT 10 OCT · Recreation Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Hamilton Academical win at 42%.
- 3′Little has changed for our model: Hamilton Academical 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 30–27–43
- 3′KICK-OFF Alloa Athletic v Hamilton Academical
- 21′20′ and it is 0–1: A. Ryan on the scoresheet for Hamilton Academical. 0–1 · 10–19–71
- 21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Alloa Athletic 0–1 Hamilton Academical
- 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Hamilton Academical win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
- 25′We said Hamilton Academical at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 9–19–71
- 27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Alloa Athletic
- 27′⚽ GOAL · 28' Alloa Athletic 0–1 Hamilton Academical
- 29′Hamilton Academical ahead on 28′ through S. McKinstry. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
- 31′Hamilton Academical ahead on 28′ through S. McKinstry. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
- 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Alloa Athletic 0–2 Hamilton Academical · S. McKinstry
- 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Hamilton Academical win: 42% at kick-off, 91% now
- 37′We said Hamilton Academical at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Hamilton Academical win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
- 41′S. Bradley scores for Hamilton Academical on 41′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
- 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Alloa Athletic 0–3 Hamilton Academical
- 45′We said Hamilton Academical at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
- 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Hamilton Academical
- 45′SECOND HALF Alloa Athletic 0–3 Hamilton Academical
- 46′HALF-TIME Alloa Athletic 0–3 Hamilton Academical
- 49′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–1–99
- 61′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Hamilton Academical
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hamilton Academical · On: D. Thomas · Off: S. Bradley
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Alloa Athletic · On: L. Rankin · Off: G. Marchant
- 72′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Hamilton Academical
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Hamilton Academical · On: G. Crookston · Off: K. MacDonald
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Hamilton Academical · On: K. Orsi · Off: S. McKinstry
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Hamilton Academical · On: G. Crookston · Off: K. MacDonald
- 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Hamilton Academical · On: K. Orsi · Off: S. McKinstry
- 85′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Hamilton Academical
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Hamilton Academical · On: K. Smutek · Off: F. Owens
- 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' C. Blues · Hamilton Academical
- FTFULL TIME Alloa Athletic 0–3 Hamilton Academical
- FTAlloa Athletic 0–3 Hamilton Academical · Hamilton Academical win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
Match updates
Recorded match details below.
Timeline
Events will appear when the match starts.
Pre-match prediction
Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15
Match information
SAT 10 OCT · 15:00
Venue · Recreation Park
The game so far
Recorded statisticsMatch statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Players on the pitch
Recorded line-upsLine-ups
Alloa Athletic
Formation not confirmed
1 R. Stewart
24 O. Foster
5 J. McGrath
2 S. Taggart
3 C. Waters
6 G. Marchant
27 A. Crilly
20 C. O'Donnell
7 K. Glasgow
28 M. Aitken
17 M. Cameron
Coach · Andy Graham
Substitutes
31 · L. Green
10 · L. Rankin
14 · F. McCafferty
15 · J. Walker
16 · J. Ellison
18 · B. Forbes
29 · L. Ross
Hamilton Academical
Formation not confirmed
1 D. Lyness
2 A. Comrie
5 F. Owens
3 T. Gallacher
33 S. Hendrie
17 S. Bannigan
6 C. Blues
10 S. Bradley
8 K. MacDonald
27 S. McKinstry
29 A. Ryan
Coach · –
Substitutes
12 · J. Lane
7 · D. Thomas
11 · K. Orsi
14 · A. McGinlay
16 · K. Smutek
18 · L. Morgan
21 · G. Crookston
24 · A. Eadie
28 · B. Black
Match statistics
Match statistics are not available yet.
Line-ups
Alloa Athletic
Formation not confirmed
1 R. Stewart
24 O. Foster
5 J. McGrath
2 S. Taggart
3 C. Waters
6 G. Marchant
27 A. Crilly
20 C. O'Donnell
7 K. Glasgow
28 M. Aitken
17 M. Cameron
Coach · Andy Graham
Substitutes
31 · L. Green
10 · L. Rankin
14 · F. McCafferty
15 · J. Walker
16 · J. Ellison
18 · B. Forbes
29 · L. Ross
Hamilton Academical
Formation not confirmed
1 D. Lyness
2 A. Comrie
5 F. Owens
3 T. Gallacher
33 S. Hendrie
17 S. Bannigan
6 C. Blues
10 S. Bradley
8 K. MacDonald
27 S. McKinstry
29 A. Ryan
Coach · –
Substitutes
12 · J. Lane
7 · D. Thomas
11 · K. Orsi
14 · A. McGinlay
16 · K. Smutek
18 · L. Morgan
21 · G. Crookston
24 · A. Eadie
28 · B. Black
We make Hamilton Academical a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.
Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 51% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alloa Athletic win | 30% | 23% | +6 |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | +3 |
| Hamilton Academical win | 42% | 51% | −9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 52% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 55% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 32% | −6 |
| Alloa Athletic or draw | 58% | 49% | +9 |
| Alloa Athletic clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
| Hamilton Academical clean sheet | 32% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
9 meetings since 2023Form · last six in League One
ALLOA ATHLETIC
HAMILTON ACADEMICAL
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 8 | +21 | 22 |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical | 8 | +16 | 22 |
| 3 | East Kilbride | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 4 | Montrose | 9 | −1 | 15 |
| 5 | Airdrie United | 9 | −4 | 12 |
| 6 | Alloa Athletic | 9 | −1 | 9 |
| 7 | East Fife | 9 | −3 | 8 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 9 | −9 | 7 |
| 9 | Queen of the South | 9 | −17 | 7 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 9 | −7 | 5 |
Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.
Ross County
East Kilbride
Montrose
Airdrie United
East Fife
Peterhead
Queen of the South
Cove Rangers