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Alloa Athletic v Hamilton Academical

Alloa Athletic
0–3Full time
Hamilton Academical

League One · SAT 10 OCT · Recreation Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33
Alloa Athletic 0–3 Hamilton Academical HAMILTON ACADEMICAL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Hamilton Academical win42%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.508
The market’s Brier score0.367

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hamilton Academical win at 42%.
  2. 3′Little has changed for our model: Hamilton Academical 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 30–27–43
  3. 3′KICK-OFF Alloa Athletic v Hamilton Academical
  4. 21′20′ and it is 0–1: A. Ryan on the scoresheet for Hamilton Academical. 0–1 · 10–19–71
  5. 21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Alloa Athletic 0–1 Hamilton Academical
  6. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Hamilton Academical win: 42% at kick-off, 71% now
  7. 25′We said Hamilton Academical at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 9–19–71
  8. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Alloa Athletic
  9. 27′⚽ GOAL · 28' Alloa Athletic 0–1 Hamilton Academical
  10. 29′Hamilton Academical ahead on 28′ through S. McKinstry. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
  11. 31′Hamilton Academical ahead on 28′ through S. McKinstry. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–7–91
  12. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Alloa Athletic 0–2 Hamilton Academical · S. McKinstry
  13. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Hamilton Academical win: 42% at kick-off, 91% now
  14. 37′We said Hamilton Academical at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
  15. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Hamilton Academical win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
  16. 41′S. Bradley scores for Hamilton Academical on 41′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  17. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Alloa Athletic 0–3 Hamilton Academical
  18. 45′We said Hamilton Academical at 42% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  19. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Hamilton Academical
  20. 45′SECOND HALF Alloa Athletic 0–3 Hamilton Academical
  21. 46′HALF-TIME Alloa Athletic 0–3 Hamilton Academical
  22. 49′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–1–99
  23. 61′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Hamilton Academical
  24. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Hamilton Academical · On: D. Thomas · Off: S. Bradley
  25. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Alloa Athletic · On: L. Rankin · Off: G. Marchant
  26. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Hamilton Academical
  27. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Hamilton Academical · On: G. Crookston · Off: K. MacDonald
  28. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Hamilton Academical · On: K. Orsi · Off: S. McKinstry
  29. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Hamilton Academical · On: G. Crookston · Off: K. MacDonald
  30. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Hamilton Academical · On: K. Orsi · Off: S. McKinstry
  31. 85′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Hamilton Academical
  32. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Hamilton Academical · On: K. Smutek · Off: F. Owens
  33. 86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' C. Blues · Hamilton Academical
  34. FTFULL TIME Alloa Athletic 0–3 Hamilton Academical
  35. FTAlloa Athletic 0–3 Hamilton Academical · Hamilton Academical win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Alloa Athletic win30%
Draw29%
Hamilton Academical win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Recreation Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Alloa Athletic

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Stewart

24 O. Foster

5 J. McGrath

2 S. Taggart

3 C. Waters

6 G. Marchant

27 A. Crilly

20 C. O'Donnell

7 K. Glasgow

28 M. Aitken

17 M. Cameron

Coach · Andy Graham

Substitutes

31 · L. Green

10 · L. Rankin

14 · F. McCafferty

15 · J. Walker

16 · J. Ellison

18 · B. Forbes

29 · L. Ross

Hamilton Academical

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Lyness

2 A. Comrie

5 F. Owens

3 T. Gallacher

33 S. Hendrie

17 S. Bannigan

6 C. Blues

10 S. Bradley

8 K. MacDonald

27 S. McKinstry

29 A. Ryan

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · J. Lane

7 · D. Thomas

11 · K. Orsi

14 · A. McGinlay

16 · K. Smutek

18 · L. Morgan

21 · G. Crookston

24 · A. Eadie

28 · B. Black

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Alloa Athletic

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Stewart

24 O. Foster

5 J. McGrath

2 S. Taggart

3 C. Waters

6 G. Marchant

27 A. Crilly

20 C. O'Donnell

7 K. Glasgow

28 M. Aitken

17 M. Cameron

Coach · Andy Graham

Substitutes

31 · L. Green

10 · L. Rankin

14 · F. McCafferty

15 · J. Walker

16 · J. Ellison

18 · B. Forbes

29 · L. Ross

Hamilton Academical

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Lyness

2 A. Comrie

5 F. Owens

3 T. Gallacher

33 S. Hendrie

17 S. Bannigan

6 C. Blues

10 S. Bradley

8 K. MacDonald

27 S. McKinstry

29 A. Ryan

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · J. Lane

7 · D. Thomas

11 · K. Orsi

14 · A. McGinlay

16 · K. Smutek

18 · L. Morgan

21 · G. Crookston

24 · A. Eadie

28 · B. Black

Our number · hamilton academical winPublished 10 Oct 15:19
42% The market51%
Us42%
Market51%

We make Hamilton Academical a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 9 OCT 06:2010 OCT 13:20
Our probability · hamilton academical win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 53% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Alloa Athletic win30%23%+6
Draw29%26%+3
Hamilton Academical win42%51%−9
Over 2.5 goals47%52%−5
Both teams to score52%55%−3
Over 1.5 goals73%75%−2
Over 3.5 goals26%32%−6
Alloa Athletic or draw58%49%+9
Alloa Athletic clean sheet25%––
Hamilton Academical clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%
0123450 9.3 9.8 7.7 3.7 1 7.7 13.4 8.6 4.1 2 5.1 7.0 4.9 2.3 3 2.0 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Alloa Athletic down, Hamilton Academical across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2023
Goals a meeting1.56
Over 2.53 of 9
Both scored2 of 9
Last meetingsHAM 1–0 ALL · HAM 1–0 ALL · ALL 3–0 HAM · HAM 1–0 ALL

Form · last six in League One

ALLOA ATHLETIC

WDDLLL2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–4

HAMILTON ACADEMICAL

WDWWWW4–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Ross County8+2122
2Hamilton Academical8+1622
3East Kilbride9+516
4Montrose9−115
5Airdrie United9−412
6Alloa Athletic9−19
7East Fife9−38
8Peterhead9−97
9Queen of the South9−177
10Cove Rangers9−75

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.