Airdrie United v Hamilton Academical prediction · League One

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 20:08

Airdrie United 1–2 Hamilton Academical HAMILTON ACADEMICAL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Hamilton Academical win~~45%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.449

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.447

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Hamilton Academical win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Hamilton Academical was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 27–28–45
1′KICK-OFF Airdrie United v Hamilton Academical
24′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Hamilton Academical
24′SUBSTITUTION · 22' Hamilton Academical · On: D. Thomas · Off: S. Bradley
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Airdrie United
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Hamilton Academical
34′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Airdrie United · On: C. Melrose · Off: R. Adams
45′A goal for Hamilton Academical on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–18–76
45′We published Hamilton Academical at 45%. Our model now makes it 76%. 0–1 · 6–18–76
45′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 6–18–76
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Airdrie United 0–1 Hamilton Academical
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Hamilton Academical win: 45% at kick-off, 76% now
45′HALF-TIME Airdrie United 0–1 Hamilton Academical
46′SECOND HALF Airdrie United 0–1 Hamilton Academical
47′Airdrie United score on 47′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 24–41–36
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Airdrie United 1–1 Hamilton Academical
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Hamilton Academical win: 45% at kick-off, 36% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Hamilton Academical win 36%)
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Hamilton Academical
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Hamilton Academical win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
53′We said Hamilton Academical at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 22–44–33
61′We said Hamilton Academical at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 20–51–29
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Airdrie United · On: K. Boateng · Off: D. Gallagher
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Hamilton Academical win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
69′We said Hamilton Academical at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 17–59–24
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Hamilton Academical · On: G. Crookston · Off: S. Bannigan
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Airdrie United · On: D. Mebude · Off: J. Gentles
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Airdrie United · On: M. Yates · Off: G. Gallagher
76′We said Hamilton Academical at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 13–69–18
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Hamilton Academical win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
80′We said Hamilton Academical at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 10–76–14
81′Hamilton Academical find the net on 81′. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–9–91
81′We published Hamilton Academical at 45%. Our model now makes it 91%. 1–2 · 1–9–91
81′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 1–9–91
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Airdrie United 1–2 Hamilton Academical
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Hamilton Academical win: 45% at kick-off, 91% now
81′THE CALL SWINGS · 81' Hamilton Academical win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 9%)
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Hamilton Academical · On: K. Orsi · Off: S. McKinstry
87′We published Hamilton Academical at 45%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Hamilton Academical
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Hamilton Academical win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Hamilton Academical
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Airdrie United
FTFULL TIME Airdrie United 1–2 Hamilton Academical
FTAirdrie United 1–2 Hamilton Academical · Hamilton Academical win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hamilton Academical are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Airdrie United 27%, draw 27%, Hamilton Academical 45%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Airdrie United v Hamilton AcademicalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Airdrie United win27%

Draw27%

Hamilton Academical win45%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAlbert Bartlett Stadium

Line-ups

Airdrie United

Hamilton Academical

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Airdrie United

Hamilton Academical

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · the Scottish Challenge Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Hamilton Academical	9	+19	25
5	Airdrie United	10	−4	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Airdrie United

Formation not confirmed

21 R. Adams

24 R. Tumilty

31 D. Gallagher

4 C. Ross

2 D. MacDonald

8 G. Gallagher

6 E. Simpson

16 C. Smith

27 L. Gibson

25 J. Gentles

22 C. Burnside

Coach · –

Substitutes

20 · C. Melrose

3 · E. Easton

7 · R. Mahon

9 · D. Mebude

10 · M. Yates

12 · K. Boateng

14 · A. Devine

33 · K. Taylor

28 · Pickford

Hamilton Academical

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Lyness

2 A. Comrie

5 F. Owens

3 T. Gallacher

33 S. Hendrie

17 S. Bannigan

6 C. Blues

10 S. Bradley

8 K. MacDonald

27 S. McKinstry

29 A. Ryan

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · J. Lane

7 · D. Thomas

11 · K. Orsi

16 · K. Smutek

18 · L. Morgan

21 · G. Crookston

22 · D. Shiels

24 · A. Eadie

28 · B. Black

Our number · hamilton academical winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

45% The market45%

Us45%

~~Market~~45%

We make Hamilton Academical a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Airdrie United v Hamilton Academical~~1.13 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in League One this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 25~~5 v 2

~~The market · Hamilton Academical win~~45% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Hamilton Academical win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Airdrie United win	27%	27%	0
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Hamilton Academical win	45%	45%	0
Over 2.5 goals	50%	49%	+1
Both teams to score	53%	55%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	28%	30%	−2
Airdrie United or draw	55%	55%	0
Airdrie United clean sheet	22%	–	–
Hamilton Academical clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.5 9.6 8.1 4.2 1 6.9 12.8 8.8 4.6 2 4.5 6.6 5.0 2.6 3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Airdrie United down, Hamilton Academical across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 979 League One matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: League One matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.2% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Airdrie United at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Hamilton Academical away: 2.17 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Airdrie United, 1.54 for Hamilton Academical. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~HAM 4–0 AIR · AIR 4–0 HAM · AIR 2–1 HAM · HAM 3–2 AIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in League One this season · since 22 Aug

AIRDRIE UNITED

DLWWWD0–0 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

HAMILTON ACADEMICAL

DWWWWW0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ross County	9	+26	25
2	Hamilton Academical	9	+19	25
3	East Kilbride	10	+5	17
4	Montrose	10	−6	15
5	Airdrie United	10	−4	13
6	Queen of the South	10	−16	10
7	East Fife	10	−3	9
8	Alloa Athletic	10	−4	9
9	Peterhead	10	−10	7
10	Cove Rangers	10	−7	6