Rangers v Aberdeen prediction · League Cup

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RangersDrawAberdeen

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Rangers 71%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rangers are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rangers 71%, draw 17%, Aberdeen 12%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Rangers v AberdeenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Rangers win71%

Draw17%

Aberdeen win12%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:30

RoundSemi-finals

VenueHampden Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rangers

Aberdeen

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish Premiership

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Scottish Premiership: Kelsy fires Rangers to emphatic win; Dundee United pip AberdeenThe Guardian · 24 Oct 17:52 · Dundee, Aberdeen

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rangers winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

71% The market–

Us71%

We make Rangers a 71% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–0.8, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rangers v Aberdeen~~2.35 – 0.82

~~Form · League Cup this season · since 14 July~~W2 D0 L0 · W5 D1 L0

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rangers win	71%	–	–
Draw	17%	–	–
Aberdeen win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Rangers or draw	88%	–	–
Rangers clean sheet	44%	–	–
Aberdeen clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.5%

0123450 4.3 3.5 1 9.8 8.1 3.4 2 11.5 9.4 3.9 3 9.0 7.4 3.0 4 5.3 4.3 5 2.5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Rangers down, Aberdeen across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,228 Premiership matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premiership matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rangers at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Aberdeen away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.35 goals for Rangers, 0.82 for Aberdeen. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ABE 0–1 RAN · RAN 4–1 ABE · ABE 0–2 RAN · RAN 2–0 ABE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · League Cup this season · since 14 July

RANGERS

WW5–1 · 3–0

ABERDEEN

WWWWWD2–0 · 2–1 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 1–1

Rangers v Aberdeen

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Rangers

Aberdeen

The game in numbers

In the news

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · League Cup this season · since 14 July