Renfrew v Troon FC prediction · Football League - Lowland League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RenfrewDrawTroon FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Renfrew 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Renfrew just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Renfrew 42%, draw 19%, Troon FC 38%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Renfrew v Troon FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Renfrew win42%

Draw19%

Troon FC win38%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45

RoundRegular season

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Renfrew

Troon FC

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish FA Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	Troon FC	12	−2	15
25	Renfrew	11	−10	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · renfrew winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Renfrew a 42% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–2.0, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Renfrew v Troon FC~~2.09 – 1.97

~~Form · last six in Football League - Lowland League this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 10 v 15~~25 v 19

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Renfrew win	42%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Troon FC win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
Renfrew or draw	62%	–	–
Renfrew clean sheet	15%	–	–
Troon FC clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.2%

0123450 4.0 3.5 2.3 1 4.2 6.8 6.8 4.4 2.3 2 3.9 7.2 6.8 4.5 2.3 3 2.7 5.0 4.7 3.1 4 2.7 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Renfrew down, Troon FC across0–5 goals a side shown (95.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,746 Football League - Lowland League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Football League - Lowland League matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.1% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Renfrew at home: 1.83 scored, 3.50 conceded a game (last 6). Troon FC away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.09 goals for Renfrew, 1.97 for Troon FC. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~TRO 2–0 REN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Football League - Lowland League this season · since 22 Aug

RENFREW

LLWWLW1–3 · 1–5 · 3–1 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 2–1

TROON FC

LWLLLW1–3 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 2–4 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kilwinning Rangers	12	+24	30
2	Pollok	11	+15	26
3	Tranent Juniors	11	+9	26
4	Linlithgow Rose	11	+18	25
5	Hill Of Beath Hawthorn	11	+5	25
6	Broxburn Athletic	11	+7	24
7	Clydebank	10	+16	23
8	Largs Thistle	12	+3	23
9	Auchinleck Talbot	11	+23	22
10	Caledonian Braves	11	+11	22
11	Brechin	10	+8	22
12	Lochee United	11	+9	20
13	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	10	+14	19
14	Johnstone Burgh	11	+6	19
15	Celtic II	11	+8	17
16	Cumnock Juniors	11	+6	17
17	Civil Service Strollers	11	0	17
18	Bo'ness United	11	−3	16
19	Troon FC	12	−2	15
20	Cumbernauld Colts	11	0	13
21	East Stirlingshire	11	−7	11
22	Gretna 2008	12	−8	11
23	Cowdenbeath	10	−2	10
24	Musselburgh Athletic	11	−5	10
25	Renfrew	11	−10	10
26	Beith	12	−16	9
27	Albion Rovers	11	−12	8
28	Gala Fairydean Rovers	10	−9	6
29	Berwick Rangers	10	−9	5
30	Dunipace	10	−18	4
31	Newton Stewart	10	−31	4
32	Stirling University	11	−17	3
33	Dalbeattie Star	11	−33	1