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Newton Stewart v Gretna 2008

Newton Stewart

19:45Upcoming

Gretna 2008

Football League - Lowland League · TUE 27 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Newton StewartDrawGretna 2008

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Gretna 2008 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gretna 2008 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Newton Stewart 35%, draw 18%, Gretna 2008 47%. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 80%.

The AI’s read on Newton Stewart v Gretna 2008Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Newton Stewart win35%

Draw18%

Gretna 2008 win47%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundRegular season

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Newton Stewart

Gretna 2008

10Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Football League - Lowland League

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish FA Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
22	Gretna 2008	12	−8	11
31	Newton Stewart	10	−31	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gretna 2008 winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Gretna 2008 a 47% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–2.6, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 6%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Newton Stewart v Gretna 2008~~2.19 – 2.58

~~Form · last six in Football League - Lowland League this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 4 v 11~~31 v 22

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Newton Stewart win	35%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Gretna 2008 win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	84%	–	–
Both teams to score	80%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	94%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	69%	–	–
Newton Stewart or draw	53%	–	–
Newton Stewart clean sheet	9%	–	–
Gretna 2008 clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.4%

0123450 2.7 2.9 2.4 1 2.4 4.8 6.1 5.0 3.2 2 2.3 5.3 6.4 5.3 3.4 3 3.8 4.6 3.8 2.5 4 2.1 2.6 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Newton Stewart down, Gretna 2008 across0–5 goals a side shown (91.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,746 Football League - Lowland League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Football League - Lowland League matches have gone over 2.5 in 71.1% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Newton Stewart at home: 1.25 scored, 4.25 conceded a game (last 4). Gretna 2008 away: 1.83 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for Newton Stewart, 2.58 for Gretna 2008. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~GRE 3–0 NEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Football League - Lowland League this season · since 22 Aug

NEWTON STEWART

LLLWLL2–3 · 0–5 · 1–5 · 2–1 · 0–5 · 2–5

GRETNA 2008

LLLWWD2–3 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 5–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kilwinning Rangers	12	+24	30
2	Pollok	11	+15	26
3	Tranent Juniors	11	+9	26
4	Linlithgow Rose	11	+18	25
5	Hill Of Beath Hawthorn	11	+5	25
6	Broxburn Athletic	11	+7	24
7	Clydebank	10	+16	23
8	Largs Thistle	12	+3	23
9	Auchinleck Talbot	11	+23	22
10	Caledonian Braves	11	+11	22
11	Brechin	10	+8	22
12	Lochee United	11	+9	20
13	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	10	+14	19
14	Johnstone Burgh	11	+6	19
15	Celtic II	11	+8	17
16	Cumnock Juniors	11	+6	17
17	Civil Service Strollers	11	0	17
18	Bo'ness United	11	−3	16
19	Troon FC	12	−2	15
20	Cumbernauld Colts	11	0	13
21	East Stirlingshire	11	−7	11
22	Gretna 2008	12	−8	11
23	Cowdenbeath	10	−2	10
24	Musselburgh Athletic	11	−5	10
25	Renfrew	11	−10	10
26	Beith	12	−16	9
27	Albion Rovers	11	−12	8
28	Gala Fairydean Rovers	10	−9	6
29	Berwick Rangers	10	−9	5
30	Dunipace	10	−18	4
31	Newton Stewart	10	−31	4
32	Stirling University	11	−17	3
33	Dalbeattie Star	11	−33	1