Kilwinning Rangers v Dalbeattie Star prediction · Football League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Kilwinning Rangers 4–0 Dalbeattie Star KILWINNING RANGERS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT4–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Kilwinning Rangers win~~93%

~~The market said~~91%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.007

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.011

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kilwinning Rangers are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kilwinning Rangers 93%, draw 4%, Dalbeattie Star 3%. Over 2.5 goals 91%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Kilwinning Rangers v Dalbeattie StarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kilwinning Rangers win93%

Draw4%

Dalbeattie Star win3%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundRegular season

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kilwinning Rangers

Dalbeattie Star

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · the Scottish FA Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kilwinning rangers winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

93% The market91%

Us93%

~~Market~~91%

We make Kilwinning Rangers a 93% chance to win. The market has them at 91%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 5.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kilwinning Rangers v Dalbeattie Star~~5.14 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in Football League - Lowland League this season · since 22 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 27 v 1~~1 v 33

~~The market · Kilwinning Rangers win~~91% · ours 93%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kilwinning Rangers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 91% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kilwinning Rangers win	93%	91%	+2
Draw	4%	5%	−1
Dalbeattie Star win	3%	4%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	91%	84%	+7
Both teams to score	52%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	97%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	81%	–	–
Kilwinning Rangers or draw	97%	96%	+1
Kilwinning Rangers clean sheet	47%	–	–
Dalbeattie Star clean sheet	1%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–0 at 7.2%

0123450 1 2 4.1 3.4 3 6.2 5.0 2.2 4 7.2 5.5 2.4 5 7.0 5.1 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Kilwinning Rangers down, Dalbeattie Star across0–5 goals a side shown (60.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,732 Football League - Lowland League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Football League - Lowland League matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Kilwinning Rangers at home: 2.60 scored, 0.60 conceded a game (last 5). Dalbeattie Star away: 0.50 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

5.14 goals for Kilwinning Rangers, 0.79 for Dalbeattie Star. Most likely score 4–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Football League - Lowland League this season · since 22 Aug

KILWINNING RANGERS

WLWWWW2–0 · 2–5 · 4–0 · 3–0 · 3–0 · 4–2

DALBEATTIE STAR

DLLLLL2–2 · 0–4 · 1–6 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kilwinning Rangers	11	+20	27
2	Tranent Juniors	10	+13	26
3	Pollok	10	+13	23
4	Broxburn Athletic	10	+7	23
5	Largs Thistle	11	+5	23
6	Auchinleck Talbot	11	+23	22
7	Linlithgow Rose	10	+17	22
8	Caledonian Braves	11	+11	22
9	Brechin	9	+10	22
10	Hill Of Beath Hawthorn	10	+4	22
11	Clydebank	9	+14	20
12	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	9	+14	18
13	Johnstone Burgh	10	+6	18
14	Celtic II	11	+8	17
15	Cumnock Juniors	11	+6	17
16	Lochee United	10	+5	17
17	Civil Service Strollers	10	0	16
18	Bo'ness United	10	−5	13
19	Troon FC	11	−3	12
20	Cumbernauld Colts	10	−3	10
21	East Stirlingshire	10	−7	10
22	Gretna 2008	11	−8	10
23	Renfrew	11	−10	10
24	Cowdenbeath	9	−2	9
25	Musselburgh Athletic	10	−5	9
26	Beith	11	−14	9
27	Albion Rovers	10	−11	8
28	Berwick Rangers	9	−8	5
29	Dunipace	9	−14	4
30	Newton Stewart	9	−28	4
31	Gala Fairydean Rovers	9	−13	3
32	Stirling University	10	−16	3
33	Dalbeattie Star	10	−29	1