Gretna 2008 v Johnstone Burgh prediction · Football League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Gretna 2008 2–2 Johnstone Burgh JOHNSTONE BURGH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Johnstone Burgh win~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.068

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Johnstone Burgh are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gretna 2008 25%, draw 18%, Johnstone Burgh 57%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on Gretna 2008 v Johnstone BurghBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gretna 2008 win25%

Draw18%

Johnstone Burgh win57%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundRegular season

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gretna 2008

Johnstone Burgh

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · the Scottish FA Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Johnstone Burgh	10	+6	18
22	Gretna 2008	11	−8	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · johnstone burgh winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Johnstone Burgh a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–2.6, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gretna 2008 v Johnstone Burgh~~1.65 – 2.55

~~Form · last six in Football League - Lowland League this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 10 v 18~~22 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gretna 2008 win	25%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Johnstone Burgh win	57%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	78%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	59%	–	–
Gretna 2008 or draw	43%	–	–
Gretna 2008 clean sheet	9%	–	–
Johnstone Burgh clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.8%

0123450 4.4 5.0 4.1 2.7 1 3.0 6.1 7.8 6.5 4.1 2.22 2.2 5.2 6.3 5.2 3.3 3 2.9 3.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gretna 2008 down, Johnstone Burgh across0–5 goals a side shown (93.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,732 Football League - Lowland League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Football League - Lowland League matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Gretna 2008 at home: 2.33 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Johnstone Burgh away: 1.60 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.65 goals for Gretna 2008, 2.55 for Johnstone Burgh. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Football League - Lowland League this season · since 22 Aug

GRETNA 2008

LLLLWW1–7 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 5–1

JOHNSTONE BURGH

WWDWLW3–2 · 4–0 · 4–4 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kilwinning Rangers	11	+20	27
2	Tranent Juniors	10	+13	26
3	Pollok	10	+13	23
4	Broxburn Athletic	10	+7	23
5	Largs Thistle	11	+5	23
6	Auchinleck Talbot	11	+23	22
7	Linlithgow Rose	10	+17	22
8	Caledonian Braves	11	+11	22
9	Brechin	9	+10	22
10	Hill Of Beath Hawthorn	10	+4	22
11	Clydebank	9	+14	20
12	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	9	+14	18
13	Johnstone Burgh	10	+6	18
14	Celtic II	11	+8	17
15	Cumnock Juniors	11	+6	17
16	Lochee United	10	+5	17
17	Civil Service Strollers	10	0	16
18	Bo'ness United	10	−5	13
19	Troon FC	11	−3	12
20	Cumbernauld Colts	10	−3	10
21	East Stirlingshire	10	−7	10
22	Gretna 2008	11	−8	10
23	Renfrew	11	−10	10
24	Cowdenbeath	9	−2	9
25	Musselburgh Athletic	10	−5	9
26	Beith	11	−14	9
27	Albion Rovers	10	−11	8
28	Berwick Rangers	9	−8	5
29	Dunipace	9	−14	4
30	Newton Stewart	9	−28	4
31	Gala Fairydean Rovers	9	−13	3
32	Stirling University	10	−16	3
33	Dalbeattie Star	10	−29	1