Cowdenbeath v Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic prediction · Football League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Cowdenbeath 2–2 Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic BONNYRIGG ROSE ATHLETIC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.979

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cowdenbeath 25%, draw 21%, Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 54%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Cowdenbeath v Bonnyrigg Rose AthleticBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cowdenbeath win25%

Draw21%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win54%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundRegular season

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cowdenbeath

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

4Days since last match4

Last match: 13 Oct · the Scottish Challenge Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	9	+14	18
24	Cowdenbeath	9	−2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bonnyrigg rose athletic winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–2.0, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cowdenbeath v Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic~~1.26 – 1.95

~~Form · last six in Football League - Lowland League this season · since 8 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 18~~24 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cowdenbeath win	25%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win	54%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Cowdenbeath or draw	46%	–	–
Cowdenbeath clean sheet	15%	–	–
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.3%

0123450 3.8 8.5 7.7 5.0 2.5 1 5.7 9.3 9.3 6.1 3.0 2 3.3 6.1 5.8 3.8 3 2.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cowdenbeath down, Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,732 Football League - Lowland League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Football League - Lowland League matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cowdenbeath at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic away: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Cowdenbeath, 1.95 for Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BON 3–2 COW · COW 2–1 BON · COW 0–1 BON · BON 3–0 COW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Football League - Lowland League this season · since 8 Aug

COWDENBEATH

LWLLWW0–2 · 4–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 3–1

BONNYRIGG ROSE ATHLETIC

WWLLWW4–1 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 6–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kilwinning Rangers	11	+20	27
2	Tranent Juniors	10	+13	26
3	Pollok	10	+13	23
4	Broxburn Athletic	10	+7	23
5	Largs Thistle	11	+5	23
6	Auchinleck Talbot	11	+23	22
7	Linlithgow Rose	10	+17	22
8	Caledonian Braves	11	+11	22
9	Brechin	9	+10	22
10	Hill Of Beath Hawthorn	10	+4	22
11	Clydebank	9	+14	20
12	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	9	+14	18
13	Johnstone Burgh	10	+6	18
14	Celtic II	11	+8	17
15	Cumnock Juniors	11	+6	17
16	Lochee United	10	+5	17
17	Civil Service Strollers	10	0	16
18	Bo'ness United	10	−5	13
19	Troon FC	11	−3	12
20	Cumbernauld Colts	10	−3	10
21	East Stirlingshire	10	−7	10
22	Gretna 2008	11	−8	10
23	Renfrew	11	−10	10
24	Cowdenbeath	9	−2	9
25	Musselburgh Athletic	10	−5	9
26	Beith	11	−14	9
27	Albion Rovers	10	−11	8
28	Berwick Rangers	9	−8	5
29	Dunipace	9	−14	4
30	Newton Stewart	9	−28	4
31	Gala Fairydean Rovers	9	−13	3
32	Stirling University	10	−16	3
33	Dalbeattie Star	10	−29	1