Celtic II v Caledonian Braves prediction · Football League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

Celtic II 0–1 Caledonian Braves CALEDONIAN BRAVES WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Caledonian Braves win~~41%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.541

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.588

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Caledonian Braves just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Celtic II 40%, draw 19%, Caledonian Braves 41%. Over 2.5 goals 78%, both teams to score 75%.

The AI’s read on Celtic II v Caledonian BravesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Celtic II win40%

Draw19%

Caledonian Braves win41%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45

RoundRegular season

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Celtic II

Caledonian Braves

3Days since last match13

Last match: 13 Oct · the Scottish Challenge Cup

Last match: 3 Oct · the Scottish FA Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Caledonian Braves	10	+10	19
14	Celtic II	10	+9	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · caledonian braves winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

41% The market38%

Us41%

~~Market~~38%

We make Caledonian Braves a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Celtic II v Caledonian Braves~~2.07 – 2.13

~~Form · last six in Football League - Lowland League this season · since 15 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 19~~14 v 11

~~The market · Caledonian Braves win~~38% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Caledonian Braves win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Celtic II win	40%	40%	0
Draw	19%	22%	−3
Caledonian Braves win	41%	38%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	78%	78%	0
Both teams to score	75%	77%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	60%	60%	0
Celtic II or draw	59%	62%	−3
Celtic II clean sheet	13%	–	–
Caledonian Braves clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.9%

0123450 3.6 3.4 2.4 1 3.7 6.4 6.8 4.8 2.6 2 3.4 6.8 6.9 4.8 2.6 3 2.4 4.7 4.8 3.3 4 2.5 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Celtic II down, Caledonian Braves across0–5 goals a side shown (95.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,731 Football League - Lowland League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Football League - Lowland League matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.9% of games this season, across 165 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Celtic II at home: 2.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Caledonian Braves away: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.07 goals for Celtic II, 2.13 for Caledonian Braves. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CAL 4–3 CEL · CEL 1–1 CAL · CEL 1–1 CAL · CAL 5–1 CEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Football League - Lowland League this season · since 15 Aug

CELTIC II

WWDLWL5–1 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 1–3

CALEDONIAN BRAVES

DWWLLW2–2 · 3–1 · 5–2 · 1–3 · 2–4 · 5–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kilwinning Rangers	11	+20	27
2	Tranent Juniors	10	+13	26
3	Pollok	10	+13	23
4	Broxburn Athletic	10	+7	23
5	Largs Thistle	11	+5	23
6	Auchinleck Talbot	11	+23	22
7	Linlithgow Rose	10	+17	22
8	Brechin	9	+10	22
9	Hill Of Beath Hawthorn	10	+4	22
10	Clydebank	9	+14	20
11	Caledonian Braves	10	+10	19
12	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	9	+14	18
13	Johnstone Burgh	10	+6	18
14	Celtic II	10	+9	17
15	Cumnock Juniors	11	+6	17
16	Lochee United	10	+5	17
17	Civil Service Strollers	10	0	16
18	Bo'ness United	10	−5	13
19	Troon FC	11	−3	12
20	Cumbernauld Colts	10	−3	10
21	East Stirlingshire	10	−7	10
22	Gretna 2008	11	−8	10
23	Renfrew	11	−10	10
24	Cowdenbeath	9	−2	9
25	Musselburgh Athletic	10	−5	9
26	Beith	11	−14	9
27	Albion Rovers	10	−11	8
28	Berwick Rangers	9	−8	5
29	Dunipace	9	−14	4
30	Newton Stewart	9	−28	4
31	Gala Fairydean Rovers	9	−13	3
32	Stirling University	10	−16	3
33	Dalbeattie Star	10	−29	1