Bo'ness United v Brechin prediction · Football League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Bo'ness United 3–1 Brechin BRECHIN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brechin win~~48%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.736

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.761

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brechin are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bo'ness United 32%, draw 21%, Brechin 48%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Bo'ness United v BrechinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bo'ness United win32%

Draw21%

Brechin win48%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundRegular season

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bo'ness United

Brechin

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · the Scottish FA Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Brechin	9	+10	22
18	Bo'ness United	10	−5	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brechin winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market48%

Us48%

~~Market~~48%

We make Brechin a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.5–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bo'ness United v Brechin~~1.54 – 1.95

~~Form · last six in Football League - Lowland League this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 22~~18 v 9

~~The market · Brechin win~~48% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Brechin win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bo'ness United win	32%	30%	+2
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Brechin win	48%	48%	0
Over 2.5 goals	67%	60%	+7
Both teams to score	65%	61%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	85%	81%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	46%	38%	+8
Bo'ness United or draw	52%	52%	0
Bo'ness United clean sheet	15%	–	–
Brechin clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.9 6.6 5.8 3.8 1 5.4 8.6 8.5 5.5 2.8 2 3.8 6.9 6.5 4.2 2.1 3 3.6 3.4 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bo'ness United down, Brechin across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,732 Football League - Lowland League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Football League - Lowland League matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Bo'ness United at home: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Brechin away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Bo'ness United, 1.95 for Brechin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Football League - Lowland League this season · since 22 Aug

BO'NESS UNITED

DWLLWL2–2 · 5–2 · 1–2 · 0–5 · 2–0 · 1–4

BRECHIN

WWWWLW2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kilwinning Rangers	11	+20	27
2	Tranent Juniors	10	+13	26
3	Pollok	10	+13	23
4	Broxburn Athletic	10	+7	23
5	Largs Thistle	11	+5	23
6	Auchinleck Talbot	11	+23	22
7	Linlithgow Rose	10	+17	22
8	Caledonian Braves	11	+11	22
9	Brechin	9	+10	22
10	Hill Of Beath Hawthorn	10	+4	22
11	Clydebank	9	+14	20
12	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	9	+14	18
13	Johnstone Burgh	10	+6	18
14	Celtic II	11	+8	17
15	Cumnock Juniors	11	+6	17
16	Lochee United	10	+5	17
17	Civil Service Strollers	10	0	16
18	Bo'ness United	10	−5	13
19	Troon FC	11	−3	12
20	Cumbernauld Colts	10	−3	10
21	East Stirlingshire	10	−7	10
22	Gretna 2008	11	−8	10
23	Renfrew	11	−10	10
24	Cowdenbeath	9	−2	9
25	Musselburgh Athletic	10	−5	9
26	Beith	11	−14	9
27	Albion Rovers	10	−11	8
28	Berwick Rangers	9	−8	5
29	Dunipace	9	−14	4
30	Newton Stewart	9	−28	4
31	Gala Fairydean Rovers	9	−13	3
32	Stirling University	10	−16	3
33	Dalbeattie Star	10	−29	1