Albion Rovers v Troon FC prediction · Football League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Albion Rovers 1–2 Troon FC ALBION ROVERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Albion Rovers win~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.576

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Albion Rovers just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Albion Rovers 39%, draw 22%, Troon FC 39%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Albion Rovers v Troon FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Albion Rovers win39%

Draw22%

Troon FC win39%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundRegular season

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Albion Rovers

Troon FC

14Days since last match14

Last match: 3 Oct · the Scottish FA Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
19	Troon FC	11	−3	12
27	Albion Rovers	10	−11	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · albion rovers winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Albion Rovers a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Albion Rovers v Troon FC~~1.61 – 1.60

~~Form · last six in Football League - Lowland League this season · since 18 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 12~~27 v 19

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Albion Rovers win	39%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Troon FC win	39%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Albion Rovers or draw	61%	–	–
Albion Rovers clean sheet	21%	–	–
Troon FC clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.9 7.2 5.3 2.8 1 7.1 9.7 8.0 4.3 2 5.3 8.1 6.3 3.4 3 2.9 4.4 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Albion Rovers down, Troon FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,732 Football League - Lowland League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Football League - Lowland League matches have gone over 2.5 in 70.5% of games this season, across 166 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Albion Rovers at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Troon FC away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Albion Rovers, 1.60 for Troon FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Football League - Lowland League this season · since 18 Aug

ALBION ROVERS

LLDLWL1–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–5

TROON FC

WLWLLL3–1 · 1–3 · 5–1 · 1–2 · 0–4 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Kilwinning Rangers	11	+20	27
2	Tranent Juniors	10	+13	26
3	Pollok	10	+13	23
4	Broxburn Athletic	10	+7	23
5	Largs Thistle	11	+5	23
6	Auchinleck Talbot	11	+23	22
7	Linlithgow Rose	10	+17	22
8	Caledonian Braves	11	+11	22
9	Brechin	9	+10	22
10	Hill Of Beath Hawthorn	10	+4	22
11	Clydebank	9	+14	20
12	Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	9	+14	18
13	Johnstone Burgh	10	+6	18
14	Celtic II	11	+8	17
15	Cumnock Juniors	11	+6	17
16	Lochee United	10	+5	17
17	Civil Service Strollers	10	0	16
18	Bo'ness United	10	−5	13
19	Troon FC	11	−3	12
20	Cumbernauld Colts	10	−3	10
21	East Stirlingshire	10	−7	10
22	Gretna 2008	11	−8	10
23	Renfrew	11	−10	10
24	Cowdenbeath	9	−2	9
25	Musselburgh Athletic	10	−5	9
26	Beith	11	−14	9
27	Albion Rovers	10	−11	8
28	Berwick Rangers	9	−8	5
29	Dunipace	9	−14	4
30	Newton Stewart	9	−28	4
31	Gala Fairydean Rovers	9	−13	3
32	Stirling University	10	−16	3
33	Dalbeattie Star	10	−29	1