Wick Academy v Formartine United prediction · Football League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Wick Academy 2–1 Formartine United FORMARTINE UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Formartine United win~~69%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.267

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.433

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Formartine United are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Wick Academy 13%, draw 18%, Formartine United 69%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Wick Academy v Formartine UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Wick Academy win13%

Draw18%

Formartine United win69%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundHighland League · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Wick Academy

Formartine United

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Football League - Highland League

Last match: 13 Oct · the Scottish Challenge Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Formartine United	14	+10	28
17	Wick Academy	14	−28	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · formartine united winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

69% The market76%

Us69%

~~Market~~76%

We make Formartine United a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Wick Academy v Formartine United~~0.86 – 2.31

~~Form · last six in Football League - Highland League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 28~~17 v 3

~~The market · Formartine United win~~76% · ours 69%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Formartine United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Wick Academy win	13%	9%	+4
Draw	18%	15%	+3
Formartine United win	69%	76%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	61%	64%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	47%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	82%	82%	0
Over 3.5 goals	39%	44%	−5
Wick Academy or draw	31%	24%	+7
Wick Academy clean sheet	11%	–	–
Formartine United clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.1%

0123450 4.7 9.7 11.1 8.5 5.0 2.41 3.6 8.5 9.2 7.0 4.1 2 3.6 4.0 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Wick Academy down, Formartine United across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,656 Football League - Highland League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Football League - Highland League matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.3% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Wick Academy at home: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Formartine United away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.86 goals for Wick Academy, 2.31 for Formartine United. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FOR 0–0 WIC · WIC 1–3 FOR · FOR 2–2 WIC · WIC 1–2 FOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Football League - Highland League this season · since 5 Sept

WICK ACADEMY

WLLWLL1–0 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 4–3 · 0–4 · 1–2

FORMARTINE UNITED

DDDWWW1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brora Rangers	14	+42	38
2	Inverurie Loco Works	15	+8	29
3	Formartine United	14	+10	28
4	Fraserburgh	13	+16	25
5	Clachnacuddin	13	+20	23
6	Banks O' Dee	14	+8	22
7	Strathspey Thistle	16	+7	22
8	Huntly	14	+7	21
9	Forres Mechanics	14	+1	20
10	Buckie Thistle	13	+9	19
11	Turriff United	14	0	19
12	Lossiemouth	15	−14	18
13	Nairn County	14	−3	17
14	Deveronvale	14	−4	15
15	Keith	14	−12	15
16	Invergordon	14	−19	13
17	Wick Academy	14	−28	6
18	Rothes	13	−48	3