Strathspey Thistle v Lossiemouth prediction · Football League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 01:40

Strathspey Thistle 2–2 Lossiemouth STRATHSPEY THISTLE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Strathspey Thistle win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.043

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Strathspey Thistle are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Strathspey Thistle 60%, draw 20%, Lossiemouth 21%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Strathspey Thistle v LossiemouthBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Strathspey Thistle win60%

Draw20%

Lossiemouth win21%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 20:00

RoundHighland League · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Strathspey Thistle

Lossiemouth

6Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Football League - Highland League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Strathspey Thistle	15	+7	21
13	Lossiemouth	14	−14	17

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · strathspey thistle winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Strathspey Thistle a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.3–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Strathspey Thistle v Lossiemouth~~2.26 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Football League - Highland League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 21 v 17~~8 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Strathspey Thistle win

Published at 56%, 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Strathspey Thistle win	60%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Lossiemouth win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Strathspey Thistle or draw	79%	–	–
Strathspey Thistle clean sheet	30%	–	–
Lossiemouth clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.5 3.7 2.5 1 6.9 8.6 5.2 2.2 2 7.8 9.1 5.6 2.4 3 5.9 6.7 4.1 4 3.5 3.9 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Strathspey Thistle down, Lossiemouth across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,655 Football League - Highland League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Football League - Highland League matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.0% of games this season, across 125 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Strathspey Thistle at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Lossiemouth away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.26 goals for Strathspey Thistle, 1.22 for Lossiemouth. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LOS 1–1 STR · STR 3–2 LOS · LOS 2–0 STR · STR 3–0 LOS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Football League - Highland League this season · since 5 Sept

STRATHSPEY THISTLE

DWWLLD1–1 · 7–1 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–2

LOSSIEMOUTH

LLLLWL0–4 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 3–4 · 4–2 · 0–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brora Rangers	14	+42	38
2	Inverurie Loco Works	15	+8	29
3	Formartine United	14	+10	28
4	Fraserburgh	13	+16	25
5	Clachnacuddin	13	+20	23
6	Banks O' Dee	14	+8	22
7	Huntly	14	+7	21
8	Strathspey Thistle	15	+7	21
9	Forres Mechanics	14	+1	20
10	Buckie Thistle	13	+9	19
11	Turriff United	14	0	19
12	Nairn County	14	−3	17
13	Lossiemouth	14	−14	17
14	Deveronvale	14	−4	15
15	Keith	14	−12	15
16	Invergordon	14	−19	13
17	Wick Academy	14	−28	6
18	Rothes	13	−48	3