Nairn County v Fraserburgh prediction · Football League

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 01:42

Nairn County 2–2 Fraserburgh FRASERBURGH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fraserburgh win~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.929

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fraserburgh are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nairn County 23%, draw 23%, Fraserburgh 53%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Nairn County v FraserburghBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Nairn County win23%

Draw23%

Fraserburgh win53%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundHighland League · matchday 22

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nairn County

Fraserburgh

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Football League - Highland League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Fraserburgh	14	+16	26
10	Nairn County	15	−2	20

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fraserburgh winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Fraserburgh a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nairn County v Fraserburgh~~1.13 – 1.84

~~Form · last six in Football League - Highland League this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 26~~10 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nairn County win	23%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Fraserburgh win	53%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Nairn County or draw	47%	–	–
Nairn County clean sheet	16%	–	–
Fraserburgh clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.7 9.3 8.6 5.3 2.5 1 5.6 10.7 9.5 5.8 2.7 2 3.3 5.9 5.4 3.3 3 2.3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nairn County down, Fraserburgh across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,664 Football League - Highland League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Football League - Highland League matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.4% of games this season, across 134 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nairn County at home: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Fraserburgh away: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Nairn County, 1.84 for Fraserburgh. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FRA 2–0 NAI · NAI 0–1 FRA · FRA 7–0 NAI · FRA 2–0 NAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Football League - Highland League this season · since 5 Sept

NAIRN COUNTY

DWWWLW2–2 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

FRASERBURGH

LDWWDD1–3 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brora Rangers	15	+42	39
2	Inverurie Loco Works	16	+10	32
3	Formartine United	15	+9	28
4	Fraserburgh	14	+16	26
5	Banks O' Dee	15	+12	25
6	Clachnacuddin	14	+16	23
7	Huntly	15	+7	22
8	Strathspey Thistle	16	+7	22
9	Forres Mechanics	15	+1	21
10	Nairn County	15	−2	20
11	Buckie Thistle	14	+8	19
12	Turriff United	15	−1	19
13	Deveronvale	15	−3	18
14	Keith	15	−10	18
15	Lossiemouth	15	−14	18
16	Invergordon	15	−21	13
17	Wick Academy	15	−27	9
18	Rothes	14	−50	3