Keith v Invergordon prediction · Football League - Highland League

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Keith 6–4 Invergordon KEITH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Keith win~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.291

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Keith are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Keith 56%, draw 21%, Invergordon 23%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Keith v InvergordonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Keith win56%

Draw21%

Invergordon win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundHighland League · matchday 15

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Keith

Invergordon

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Football League - Highland League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Keith	14	−12	15
16	Invergordon	14	−19	13

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · keith winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Keith a 56% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Keith v Invergordon~~2.16 – 1.30

~~Form · last six in Football League - Highland League this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 15 v 13~~15 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Keith win	56%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Invergordon win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Keith or draw	77%	–	–
Keith clean sheet	28%	–	–
Invergordon clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.7 4.2 2.9 1 6.8 9.0 5.7 2.5 2 7.2 9.0 5.8 2.6 3 5.1 6.4 4.1 4 2.9 3.5 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Keith down, Invergordon across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,656 Football League - Highland League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Football League - Highland League matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.3% of games this season, across 126 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Keith at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Invergordon away: 1.17 scored, 3.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.16 goals for Keith, 1.30 for Invergordon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Football League - Highland League this season · since 5 Sept

KEITH

WLLLWL2–0 · 1–4 · 2–3 · 0–5 · 1–0 · 0–2

INVERGORDON

LLWLLW0–2 · 2–7 · 3–1 · 0–7 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brora Rangers	14	+42	38
2	Inverurie Loco Works	15	+8	29
3	Formartine United	14	+10	28
4	Fraserburgh	13	+16	25
5	Clachnacuddin	13	+20	23
6	Banks O' Dee	14	+8	22
7	Strathspey Thistle	16	+7	22
8	Huntly	14	+7	21
9	Forres Mechanics	14	+1	20
10	Buckie Thistle	13	+9	19
11	Turriff United	14	0	19
12	Lossiemouth	15	−14	18
13	Nairn County	14	−3	17
14	Deveronvale	14	−4	15
15	Keith	14	−12	15
16	Invergordon	14	−19	13
17	Wick Academy	14	−28	6
18	Rothes	13	−48	3