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Fraserburgh v Strathspey Thistle

Fraserburgh

2–2Full time

Strathspey Thistle

Football League - Highland League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 01:30

Fraserburgh 2–2 Strathspey Thistle FRASERBURGH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fraserburgh win~~78%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.373

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.012

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Fraserburgh win78%

Draw13%

Strathspey Thistle win9%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fraserburgh winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

78% The market58%

Us78%

~~Market~~58%

We make Fraserburgh a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 20 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.0–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fraserburgh win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fraserburgh win	78%	58%	+20
Draw	13%	21%	−7
Strathspey Thistle win	9%	22%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	75%	69%	+6
Both teams to score	57%	66%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	90%	83%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	55%	49%	+6
Fraserburgh or draw	91%	78%	+13
Fraserburgh clean sheet	40%	–	–
Strathspey Thistle clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 8.6%

0123450 2.3 1 5.9 5.6 2.6 2 8.6 7.9 3.7 3 8.5 7.8 3.7 4 6.5 5.9 2.8 5 4.0 3.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Fraserburgh down, Strathspey Thistle across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,646 Football League - Highland League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Football League - Highland League matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.0% of games this season, across 116 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 5.70 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fraserburgh at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Strathspey Thistle away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.03 goals for Fraserburgh, 0.94 for Strathspey Thistle. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~5.70

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~STR 0–1 FRA · FRA 4–1 STR · FRA 3–1 STR · STR 2–2 FRA

Form · last six in Football League - Highland League

FRASERBURGH

WDLDWW4–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 3–1

STRATHSPEY THISTLE

WDWWLL2–0 · 1–1 · 7–1 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Brora Rangers	13	+41	35
2	Inverurie Loco Works	14	+10	29
3	Formartine United	13	+8	25
4	Fraserburgh	12	+16	24
5	Clachnacuddin	12	+17	20
6	Strathspey Thistle	14	+7	20
7	Forres Mechanics	13	+3	20
8	Buckie Thistle	12	+12	19
9	Banks O' Dee	13	+2	19
10	Huntly	13	+5	18
11	Nairn County	13	−2	17
12	Lossiemouth	13	−8	17
13	Turriff United	13	−2	16
14	Keith	13	−10	15
15	Deveronvale	13	−5	12
16	Invergordon	13	−21	10
17	Wick Academy	13	−27	6
18	Rothes	12	−46	3