Troon FC v Caledonian Braves

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Caledonian Braves win at 50%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Caledonian Braves 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 30–20–50
3. 1′KICK-OFF Troon FC v Caledonian Braves
4. 20′Troon FC find the net on 20′. 1–0. 1–0 · 53–22–25
5. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Troon FC 1–0 Caledonian Braves
6. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Caledonian Braves win: 50% at kick-off, 25% now
7. 20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Troon FC win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Caledonian Braves win 47%)
8. 21′We said Caledonian Braves at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 53–22–24
9. 25′A goal for Caledonian Braves on 24′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–25–46
10. 25′⚽ GOAL · 24' Troon FC 1–1 Caledonian Braves
11. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Caledonian Braves win: 50% at kick-off, 46% now
12. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Caledonian Braves win is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Troon FC win 54%)
13. 40′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 1–1 · 28–30–42
14. 42′Caledonian Braves score on 41′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 9–18–72
15. 42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Troon FC 1–2 Caledonian Braves
16. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Caledonian Braves win: 50% at kick-off, 72% now
17. 43′We said Caledonian Braves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–2 · 9–18–73
18. 45′HALF-TIME Troon FC 1–2 Caledonian Braves
19. 46′SECOND HALF Troon FC 1–2 Caledonian Braves
20. 50′Caledonian Braves find the net on 50′. 1–3. 1–3 · 2–6–92
21. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Troon FC 1–3 Caledonian Braves
22. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Caledonian Braves win: 50% at kick-off, 92% now
23. 51′We said Caledonian Braves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 1–3 · 2–6–93
24. 51′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 2–6–93
25. 55′A goal for Troon FC on 55′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 7–19–75
26. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Troon FC 2–3 Caledonian Braves
27. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Caledonian Braves win: 50% at kick-off, 75% now
28. 56′We said Caledonian Braves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–3 · 6–19–75
29. 56′5 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 6–19–75
30. 70′We said Caledonian Braves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–3 · 3–17–80
31. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Caledonian Braves win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
32. 78′We said Caledonian Braves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–3 · 2–13–85
33. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Caledonian Braves win: 50% at kick-off, 90% now
34. 89′We said Caledonian Braves at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
35. 89′PENALTY MISSED · 89' Caledonian Braves
36. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 41%. 3–3 · 24–41–35
37. 90′PENALTY MISSED · 86' R. McNeil · Caledonian Braves
38. 92′Troon FC score on 90′ to make it 3–3. 3–3 · 3–92–4
39. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Troon FC 3–3 Caledonian Braves
40. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Caledonian Braves win: 50% at kick-off, 4% now
41. 92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Caledonian Braves win 97%)
42. 93′We said Caledonian Braves at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 3–3 · 3–94–3
43. 94′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 2–96–2
44. 95′Troon FC find the net on 95′. 4–3. 4–3 · 68–24–8
45. 95′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Troon FC likeliest at 68%. 4–3 · 68–24–8
46. 95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Troon FC 4–3 Caledonian Braves
47. 96′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 47%. 3–3 · 22–47–31 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
48. 96′7 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 4–3 · 69–23–8
49. FTFULL TIME Troon FC 4–3 Caledonian Braves after extra time
50. FTTroon FC 3–3 Caledonian Braves after 90 minutes, as graded · Caledonian Braves win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.