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Model 1.2

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Stirling University v Elgin City

Stirling University
1–2Full time
Elgin City

FA Cup · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Stirling University 1–2 Elgin City ELGIN CITY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Elgin City win69%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.141

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Elgin City win at 69%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Elgin City was 69% before kick-off and our model makes it 69% now. 0–0 · 14–17–69
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Stirling University v Elgin City
  4. 17′Elgin City find the net on 17′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–10–85
  5. 17′We published Elgin City at 69%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 5–10–85
  6. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Stirling University 0–1 Elgin City
  7. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Elgin City win: 69% at kick-off, 85% now
  8. 30′We published Elgin City at 69%. Our model now makes it 84%. 0–1 · 4–11–84
  9. 31′Goals are coming at about the 3.8 we expected. 0–1 · 4–11–84
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Stirling University 0–1 Elgin City
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Stirling University 0–1 Elgin City
  12. 72′A goal for Elgin City on 72′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  13. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Stirling University 0–2 Elgin City
  14. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Elgin City win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
  15. 73′We published Elgin City at 69%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  16. 80′Stirling University score on 80′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–8–91
  17. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Stirling University 1–2 Elgin City
  18. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Elgin City win: 69% at kick-off, 91% now
  19. 81′We published Elgin City at 69%. Our model now makes it 92%. 1–2 · 0–8–92
  20. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Elgin City win: 69% at kick-off, 99% now
  21. FTFULL TIME Stirling University 1–2 Elgin City
  22. FTStirling University 1–2 Elgin City · Elgin City win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Elgin City are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stirling University 14%, draw 17%, Elgin City 69%. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Stirling University v Elgin CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Stirling University win14%
Draw17%
Elgin City win69%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundRound of 128

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stirling University

Elgin City

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Football League - Lowland League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish League Two

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · elgin city winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
69% The market–
Us69%

We make Elgin City a 69% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–2.7, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Stirling University v Elgin City1.14 – 2.66

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Stirling University win14%––
Draw17%––
Elgin City win69%––
Over 2.5 goals73%––
Both teams to score63%––
Over 1.5 goals89%––
Over 3.5 goals53%––
Stirling University or draw31%––
Stirling University clean sheet7%––
Elgin City clean sheet32%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.0%
0123450 2.5 5.7 7.9 7.0 4.7 2.51 2.3 7.0 9.0 8.0 5.3 2.82 3.9 5.1 4.6 3.0 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Stirling University down, Elgin City across0–5 goals a side shown (94.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season · since 3 Oct

STIRLING UNIVERSITY

W1–0

ELGIN CITY

No matches in our record yet.