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Model 1.2

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Renfrew v Stirling Albion

Renfrew
2–1Full time
Stirling Albion

FA Cup · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Renfrew 2–1 Stirling Albion STIRLING ALBION WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Stirling Albion win49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.776

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Stirling Albion win at 49%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Stirling Albion 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 30–21–49
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Renfrew v Stirling Albion
  4. 40′A goal for Renfrew on 41′. 0–0 · 29–29–43
  5. 41′We said Stirling Albion at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 58–24–19
  6. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Renfrew 1–0 Stirling Albion
  7. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Stirling Albion win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
  8. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Renfrew win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Stirling Albion win 43%)
  9. 43′42′: A. Gilfedder on the scoresheet for Renfrew, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 58–24–18
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Renfrew 1–0 Stirling Albion
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Renfrew 1–0 Stirling Albion
  12. 52′We said Stirling Albion at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–24–14
  13. 56′Renfrew find the net on 55′. 2–0. 2–0 · 87–10–3
  14. 56′We said Stirling Albion at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 2–0 · 87–10–3
  15. 56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Renfrew 2–0 Stirling Albion
  16. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Stirling Albion win: 49% at kick-off, 3% now
  17. 79′A goal for Stirling Albion on 79′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 80–17–3
  18. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Renfrew 2–1 Stirling Albion
  19. FTFULL TIME Renfrew 2–1 Stirling Albion
  20. FTRenfrew 2–1 Stirling Albion · Stirling Albion win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stirling Albion are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Renfrew 30%, draw 21%, Stirling Albion 49%. Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Renfrew v Stirling AlbionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Renfrew win30%
Draw21%
Stirling Albion win49%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundRound of 128

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Renfrew

Stirling Albion

14Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Football League - Lowland League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish League Two

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stirling albion winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 01:44 · locked at kick-off
49% The market–
Us49%

We make Stirling Albion a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–2.2, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Renfrew v Stirling Albion1.74 – 2.25

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:35
Our probability · Stirling Albion win

Published at 50%, 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Renfrew win30%––
Draw21%––
Stirling Albion win49%––
Over 2.5 goals76%––
Both teams to score74%––
Over 1.5 goals91%––
Over 3.5 goals56%––
Renfrew or draw51%––
Renfrew clean sheet11%––
Stirling Albion clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.1%
0123450 2.1 3.9 4.7 3.5 1 3.0 7.5 8.1 6.1 3.4 2 2.8 6.3 7.1 5.3 3.0 3 3.7 4.1 3.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Renfrew down, Stirling Albion across0–5 goals a side shown (96.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season · since 3 Oct

RENFREW

W3–2

STIRLING ALBION

No matches in our record yet.