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Lochee United v Spartans

Lochee United
1–2Full time
Spartans

FA Cup · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Lochee United 1–2 Spartans SPARTANS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Spartans win47%
The market said60%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.418
The market’s Brier score0.244

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Spartans win at 47%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Spartans 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 31–22–47
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Lochee United v Spartans
  4. 7′Spartans find the net on 6′. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–16–69
  5. 7′We said Spartans at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 69%. 0–1 · 14–16–69
  6. 7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Lochee United 0–1 Spartans
  7. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Spartans win: 47% at kick-off, 69% now
  8. 9′Spartans ahead on 7′ through M. McNulty. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–16–69
  9. 13′We said Spartans at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–1 · 14–17–70
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 0–1 · 12–18–70
  11. 40′A goal for Lochee United on 39′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–30–41
  12. 40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Lochee United 1–1 Spartans
  13. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Spartans win: 47% at kick-off, 41% now
  14. 44′Spartans score on 44′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 9–19–72
  15. 44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Lochee United 1–2 Spartans
  16. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Spartans win: 47% at kick-off, 72% now
  17. 45′HALF-TIME Lochee United 1–2 Spartans
  18. 46′SECOND HALF Lochee United 1–2 Spartans
  19. 59′We said Spartans at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 6–19–75
  20. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Spartans win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
  21. 71′We said Spartans at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
  22. 78′We said Spartans at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
  23. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Spartans win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
  24. 83′We said Spartans at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
  25. 90′We said Spartans at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  26. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Spartans win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  27. FTFULL TIME Lochee United 1–2 Spartans
  28. FTLochee United 1–2 Spartans · Spartans win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Spartans are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lochee United 31%, draw 22%, Spartans 47%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Lochee United v SpartansBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Lochee United win31%
Draw22%
Spartans win47%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundRound of 128

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lochee United

Spartans

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Football League - Lowland League

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish League Two

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spartans winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 24 Oct 04:26 · locked at kick-off
47% The market60%
Us47%
Market60%

We make Spartans a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Lochee United v Spartans1.63 – 2.05
The market · Spartans win60% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:35
Our probability · Spartans win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Lochee United win31%19%+12
Draw22%21%+1
Spartans win47%60%−13
Over 2.5 goals71%63%+8
Both teams to score70%60%+10
Over 1.5 goals89%82%+7
Over 3.5 goals50%43%+7
Lochee United or draw53%40%+13
Lochee United clean sheet13%––
Spartans clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.7%
0123450 2.8 4.9 5.3 3.6 1 3.8 8.7 8.6 5.9 3.0 2 3.3 6.9 7.0 4.8 2.5 3 3.7 3.8 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Lochee United down, Spartans across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season · since 3 Oct

LOCHEE UNITED

W3–2

SPARTANS

No matches in our record yet.