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Model 1.2

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Edinburgh City v Kelty Hearts

Edinburgh City
4–1Full time
Kelty Hearts

FA Cup · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Edinburgh City 4–1 Kelty Hearts KELTY HEARTS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Kelty Hearts win38%
The market said36%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.613
The market’s Brier score0.579

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 12 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kelty Hearts win at 38%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Kelty Hearts 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 36–26–38
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Edinburgh City v Kelty Hearts
  4. 23′Edinburgh City find the net on 22′. 1–0. 1–0 · 65–21–14
  5. 23′We said Kelty Hearts at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 65–21–14
  6. 23′⚽ GOAL · 22' Edinburgh City 1–0 Kelty Hearts
  7. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Kelty Hearts win: 38% at kick-off, 14% now
  8. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Edinburgh City win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Kelty Hearts win 35%)
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 66–22–13
  10. 40′Edinburgh City find the net on 39′. 1–0 · 68–22–10
  11. 40′We said Kelty Hearts at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 90–8–2
  12. 40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Edinburgh City 2–0 Kelty Hearts
  13. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Kelty Hearts win: 38% at kick-off, 2% now
  14. 41′I. Lawson scores for Edinburgh City on 40′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 90–8–2
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Edinburgh City 2–0 Kelty Hearts
  16. 45′SECOND HALF Edinburgh City 2–0 Kelty Hearts
  17. 69′Kelty Hearts score on 68′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 79–18–3
  18. 69′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 79–18–3
  19. 69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Edinburgh City 2–1 Kelty Hearts
  20. 72′69′: M. Falconer on the scoresheet for Kelty Hearts, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 81–17–3
  21. 79′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  22. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Edinburgh City 3–1 Kelty Hearts
  23. 80′Edinburgh City find the net on 79′. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  24. 90′4–1 at the end. Our 38% on Kelty Hearts misses, and the record keeps it. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  25. 91′A goal for Edinburgh City on 90′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
  26. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Edinburgh City 4–1 Kelty Hearts
  27. FTFULL TIME Edinburgh City 4–1 Kelty Hearts
  28. FTEdinburgh City 4–1 Kelty Hearts · Kelty Hearts win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Kelty Hearts just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Edinburgh City 36%, draw 26%, Kelty Hearts 38%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Edinburgh City v Kelty HeartsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Edinburgh City win36%
Draw26%
Kelty Hearts win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundRound of 128

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Edinburgh City

Kelty Hearts

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish League Two

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish League Two

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kelty hearts winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
38% The market36%
Us38%
Market36%

We make Kelty Hearts a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Edinburgh City v Kelty Hearts1.40 – 1.43
The market · Kelty Hearts win36% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:35
Our probability · Kelty Hearts win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Edinburgh City win36%38%−2
Draw26%26%0
Kelty Hearts win38%36%+2
Over 2.5 goals54%57%−3
Both teams to score58%61%−3
Over 1.5 goals78%78%0
Over 3.5 goals31%37%−6
Edinburgh City or draw62%64%−2
Edinburgh City clean sheet24%––
Kelty Hearts clean sheet25%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%
0123450 6.3 8.0 6.0 2.9 1 7.9 12.2 8.4 4.0 2 5.8 8.3 5.9 2.8 3 2.7 3.9 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Edinburgh City down, Kelty Hearts across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.58 of 10
Both scored7 of 10
Last meetingsKEL 1–3 EDI · KEL 3–1 EDI · KEL 3–2 EDI · EDI 0–3 KEL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season

EDINBURGH CITY

No matches in our record yet.

KELTY HEARTS

No matches in our record yet.