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Model 1.2

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Dunipace v Largs Thistle

Dunipace
1–5Full time
Largs Thistle

FA Cup · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Dunipace 1–5 Largs Thistle LARGS THISTLE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Largs Thistle win56%
The market said45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.288
The market’s Brier score0.461

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 15 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Largs Thistle win at 56%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Largs Thistle was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 22–22–56
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Dunipace v Largs Thistle
  4. 26′Largs Thistle score on 25′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–15–79
  5. 26′We published Largs Thistle at 56%. Our model now makes it 79%. 0–1 · 6–15–79
  6. 26′⚽ GOAL · 25' Dunipace 0–1 Largs Thistle
  7. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Largs Thistle win: 56% at kick-off, 79% now
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 6–15–79
  9. 31′Largs Thistle find the net on 31′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
  10. 31′We published Largs Thistle at 56%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
  11. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Dunipace 0–2 Largs Thistle
  12. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Largs Thistle win: 56% at kick-off, 94% now
  13. 35′We published Largs Thistle at 56%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
  14. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Largs Thistle win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
  15. 45′HALF-TIME Dunipace 0–2 Largs Thistle
  16. 46′SECOND HALF Dunipace 0–2 Largs Thistle
  17. 58′A goal for Dunipace on 57′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 3–15–82
  18. 58′We published Largs Thistle at 56%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–2 · 3–15–82
  19. 58′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 3–15–82
  20. 58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Dunipace 1–2 Largs Thistle
  21. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Largs Thistle win: 56% at kick-off, 82% now
  22. 65′Largs Thistle score on 65′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
  23. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Dunipace 1–3 Largs Thistle
  24. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Largs Thistle win: 56% at kick-off, 98% now
  25. 66′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–2–98
  26. 68′64′: N. Little on the scoresheet for Largs Thistle, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
  27. 80′We published Largs Thistle at 56%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
  28. 89′Largs Thistle find the net on 89′. 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  29. 89′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  30. 89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Dunipace 1–4 Largs Thistle
  31. 90′6 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
  32. 90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Dunipace 1–5 Largs Thistle
  33. 91′A goal for Largs Thistle on 90′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
  34. FTFULL TIME Dunipace 1–5 Largs Thistle
  35. FTDunipace 1–5 Largs Thistle · Largs Thistle win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Largs Thistle are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dunipace 22%, draw 22%, Largs Thistle 56%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Dunipace v Largs ThistleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dunipace win22%
Draw22%
Largs Thistle win56%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundRound of 128

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dunipace

Largs Thistle

7Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Football League - Lowland League

Last match: 20 Oct · Football League - Lowland League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · largs thistle winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 01:44 · locked at kick-off
56% The market45%
Us56%
Market45%

We make Largs Thistle a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dunipace v Largs Thistle1.00 – 1.81
Form · FA Cup this season · since 3 OctW1 D0 L0 · W1 D0 L0
The market · Largs Thistle win45% · ours 56%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:35
Our probability · Largs Thistle win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 56% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dunipace win22%33%−11
Draw22%22%0
Largs Thistle win56%45%+11
Over 2.5 goals53%61%−8
Both teams to score51%61%−10
Over 1.5 goals76%81%−5
Over 3.5 goals31%39%−8
Dunipace or draw44%55%−11
Dunipace clean sheet17%––
Largs Thistle clean sheet38%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 11.5%
0123450 6.1 11.5 9.7 5.9 2.8 1 6.7 10.1 9.2 5.6 2.6 2 3.1 5.3 4.7 2.8 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dunipace down, Largs Thistle across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season · since 3 Oct

DUNIPACE

W5–2

LARGS THISTLE

W1–0