Dumbarton v Keith
DumbartonKeithFA Cup · SAT 24 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Dumbarton win at 84%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Dumbarton was 84% before kick-off and our model makes it 84% now. 0–0 · 84–11–5
- 1′KICK-OFF Dumbarton v Keith
- 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Dumbarton win: 84% at kick-off, 74% now
- 37′We said Dumbarton at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 72%. 0–0 · 72–20–8
- 43′We said Dumbarton at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 69%. 0–0 · 69–23–8
- 45′HALF-TIME Dumbarton 0–0 Keith
- 47′SECOND HALF Dumbarton 0–0 Keith
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Dumbarton win: 84% at kick-off, 64% now
- 52′We said Dumbarton at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 63%. 0–0 · 63–28–9
- 55′We expected about 3.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 61–30–9
- 57′We said Dumbarton at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–32–9
- 63′We said Dumbarton at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–38–9
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Dumbarton win: 84% at kick-off, 54% now
- 67′We said Dumbarton at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–42–8
- 71′We said Dumbarton at 84%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–48–8
- 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Dumbarton win: 84% at kick-off, 44% now
- 72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Dumbarton win 47%)
- 73′Dumbarton score on 73′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 92–7–1
- 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Dumbarton 1–0 Keith
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Dumbarton win: 84% at kick-off, 92% now
- 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Dumbarton win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 52%)
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Dumbarton win: 84% at kick-off, 94% now
- 83′We published Dumbarton at 84%. Our model now makes it 96%. 1–0 · 96–4–0
- FTFULL TIME Dumbarton 1–0 Keith
- FTDumbarton 1–0 Keith · Dumbarton win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Dumbarton are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Dumbarton 84%, draw 11%, Keith 5%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 51%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Dumbarton win84%Keith win5%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00
RoundRound of 128
Match timeline
All events
DumbartonMINKeithEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Dumbarton
Keith
Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish League Two
Last match: 17 Oct · Football League - Highland League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Dumbarton an 84% chance to win. The model expects 3.2–0.8, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dumbarton win | 84% | – | – |
| Draw | 11% | – | – |
| Keith win | 5% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 51% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 56% | – | – |
| Dumbarton or draw | 95% | – | – |
| Dumbarton clean sheet | 47% | – | – |
| Keith clean sheet | 4% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · FA Cup this season · since 3 Oct
DUMBARTON
No matches in our record yet.
KEITH