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Model 1.2

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Clydebank v Tranent Juniors

Clydebank
2–1Full time
Tranent Juniors

FA Cup · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Clydebank 2–1 Tranent Juniors CLYDEBANK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Clydebank win52%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.346
The market’s Brier score0.359

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Clydebank win at 52%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Clydebank was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–21–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Clydebank v Tranent Juniors
  4. 9′Clydebank find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–16–11
  5. 9′We published Clydebank at 52%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–16–11
  6. 9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Clydebank 1–0 Tranent Juniors
  7. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Clydebank win: 52% at kick-off, 73% now
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–0 · 74–17–9
  9. 40′We published Clydebank at 52%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–8
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Clydebank 1–0 Tranent Juniors
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Clydebank 1–0 Tranent Juniors
  12. 59′A goal for Clydebank on 58′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  13. 59′We published Clydebank at 52%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  14. 59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Clydebank 2–0 Tranent Juniors
  15. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Clydebank win: 52% at kick-off, 95% now
  16. 72′Tranent Juniors score on 72′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 83–15–2
  17. 72′We published Clydebank at 52%. Our model now makes it 83%. 2–1 · 83–15–2
  18. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Clydebank 2–1 Tranent Juniors
  19. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Clydebank win: 52% at kick-off, 83% now
  20. 75′We published Clydebank at 52%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
  21. 82′We published Clydebank at 52%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  22. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Clydebank win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
  23. FTFULL TIME Clydebank 2–1 Tranent Juniors
  24. FTClydebank 2–1 Tranent Juniors · Clydebank win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Clydebank are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Clydebank 52%, draw 21%, Tranent Juniors 27%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Clydebank v Tranent JuniorsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Clydebank win52%
Draw21%
Tranent Juniors win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundRound of 128

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Clydebank

Tranent Juniors

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Football League - Lowland League

Last match: 17 Oct · Football League - Lowland League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · clydebank winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:17 · locked at kick-off
52% The market51%
Us52%
Market51%

We make Clydebank a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Clydebank v Tranent Juniors2.01 – 1.39
Form · FA Cup this season · since 3 OctW1 D0 L0 · W0 D1 L0
The market · Clydebank win51% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 14:35
Our probability · Clydebank win The market, margin stripped

Published at 49%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Clydebank win52%51%+1
Draw21%22%−1
Tranent Juniors win27%27%0
Over 2.5 goals66%75%−9
Both teams to score64%73%−9
Over 1.5 goals84%88%−4
Over 3.5 goals44%56%−12
Clydebank or draw73%73%0
Clydebank clean sheet25%––
Tranent Juniors clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.1%
0123450 3.2 5.2 3.3 1 7.3 8.8 6.4 3.0 2 6.7 9.1 6.3 2.9 3 4.5 6.1 4.2 4 2.3 3.1 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Clydebank down, Tranent Juniors across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting4.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsCLY 1–2 TRA · TRA 0–5 CLY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season · since 3 Oct

CLYDEBANK

W1–0

TRANENT JUNIORS

D1–1