Brora Rangers v Cowdenbeath

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Brora Rangers win at 61%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Brora Rangers 61% before kick-off, 61% now. 0–0 · 61–20–19
3. 1′KICK-OFF Brora Rangers v Cowdenbeath
4. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Brora Rangers win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
5. 42′We said Brora Rangers at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–31–20
6. 45′HALF-TIME Brora Rangers 0–0 Cowdenbeath
7. 46′SECOND HALF Brora Rangers 0–0 Cowdenbeath
8. 53′We said Brora Rangers at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–37–19
9. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.4 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 43–38–18
10. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Brora Rangers win: 61% at kick-off, 41% now
11. 61′We said Brora Rangers at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–17
12. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Brora Rangers win 41%)
13. 68′We said Brora Rangers at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–51–16
14. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Brora Rangers win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
15. 73′We said Brora Rangers at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–58–14
16. 77′We said Brora Rangers at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–64–12
17. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Brora Rangers win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
18. 81′We said Brora Rangers at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–0 · 18–73–9
19. 84′We said Brora Rangers at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–81–7
20. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Brora Rangers win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
21. 88′We said Brora Rangers at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
22. 88′Cowdenbeath score on 88′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–9–91
23. 88′We said Brora Rangers at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 0–1 · 0–9–91
24. 88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Brora Rangers 0–1 Cowdenbeath
25. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Brora Rangers win: 61% at kick-off, under 1% now
26. 88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Cowdenbeath win is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Draw 86%)
27. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 42%. 1–1 · 40–42–18
28. 90′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 1–1 · 40–42–18
29. 92′86′: B. Mwangi on the scoresheet for Cowdenbeath, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–5–95 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
30. 93′Brora Rangers find the net on 90′. 1–1. 1–1 · 4–95–2
31. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Brora Rangers 1–1 Cowdenbeath
32. 93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Cowdenbeath win 96%)
33. 101′A goal for Brora Rangers on 101′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–2
34. 101′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Brora Rangers likeliest at 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
35. 101′⚽ GOAL · 101' Brora Rangers 2–1 Cowdenbeath
36. 121′Brora Rangers score on 120′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
37. 121′Cowdenbeath are down to ten from 120′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–1 · 100–0–0
38. 121′🟥 RED CARD · 120' Cowdenbeath
39. 121′⚽ GOAL · 120' Brora Rangers 3–1 Cowdenbeath
40. 122′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
41. 122′🟨 YELLOW · 120' S. Cameron · Cowdenbeath
42. 128′120′: C. Bunce on the scoresheet for Brora Rangers, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
43. 128′Cowdenbeath are down to ten from 120′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 3–1 · 100–0–0
44. 129′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Brora Rangers likeliest at over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
45. 129′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
46. 142′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 96%. 1–1 · 2–96–1
47. FTFULL TIME Brora Rangers 3–1 Cowdenbeath after extra time
48. FTBrora Rangers 1–1 Cowdenbeath after 90 minutes, as graded · Brora Rangers win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.