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Brechin v Strathspey Thistle

Brechin
2–2After penalties
Strathspey Thistle

FA Cup · SAT 24 OCT

After 90 minutesGraded 24 Oct 18:08
Brechin 2–2 Strathspey Thistle BRECHIN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Brechin win82%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.461

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 2–2, the score after 90 minutes. Brechin won 6–5 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay25 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Brechin win at 82%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Brechin was 82% before kick-off and our model makes it 82% now. 0–0 · 82–12–6
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Brechin v Strathspey Thistle
  4. 2′A goal for Brechin on 2′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 94–5–2
  5. 2′We published Brechin at 82%. Our model now makes it 94%. 1–0 · 94–5–2
  6. 2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Brechin 1–0 Strathspey Thistle
  7. 2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Brechin win: 82% at kick-off, 94% now
  8. 6′GOAL DISALLOWED · 6' Brechin
  9. 6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Brechin win: 82% at kick-off, 81% now
  10. 7′A goal for Strathspey Thistle on 6′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 61–20–19
  11. 7′We said Brechin at 82%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 61%. 0–1 · 61–20–19
  12. 7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Brechin 0–1 Strathspey Thistle
  13. 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Brechin win: 82% at kick-off, 61% now
  14. 9′Brechin score on 8′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 80–13–7
  15. 9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Brechin 1–1 Strathspey Thistle
  16. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Brechin win: 82% at kick-off, 80% now
  17. 32′Strathspey Thistle find the net on 32′. 1–2. 1–2 · 47–26–27
  18. 32′We said Brechin at 82%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 1–2 · 47–26–27
  19. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Brechin 1–2 Strathspey Thistle
  20. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Brechin win: 82% at kick-off, 47% now
  21. 35′We said Brechin at 82%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–2 · 44–27–29
  22. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Brechin win: 82% at kick-off, 42% now
  23. 42′We said Brechin at 82%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–2 · 39–29–32
  24. 45′HALF-TIME Brechin 1–2 Strathspey Thistle
  25. 46′SECOND HALF Brechin 1–2 Strathspey Thistle
  26. 48′We said Brechin at 82%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–2 · 34–30–36
  27. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Brechin win: 82% at kick-off, 32% now
  28. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Strathspey Thistle win is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Brechin win 35%)
  29. 54′We said Brechin at 82%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–2 · 29–31–40
  30. 59′We said Brechin at 82%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–32–44
  31. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Brechin win: 82% at kick-off, 22% now
  32. 62′Goals are coming at about the 3.8 we expected. 1–2 · 21–32–47
  33. 64′We said Brechin at 82%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–2 · 19–32–49
  34. 65′A goal for Brechin on 65′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 50–42–9
  35. 65′We said Brechin at 82%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 50%. 2–2 · 50–42–9
  36. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Brechin 2–2 Strathspey Thistle
  37. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Brechin win: 82% at kick-off, 50% now
  38. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Brechin win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Strathspey Thistle win 49%)
  39. 66′4 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 49–43–8
  40. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Brechin win: 82% at kick-off, 42% now
  41. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Brechin win 46%)
  42. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Brechin win: 82% at kick-off, 31% now
  43. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Brechin win: 82% at kick-off, 22% now
  44. 87′We said Brechin at 82%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–83–3
  45. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Brechin win: 82% at kick-off, 12% now
  46. 90′We said Brechin at 82%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–88–2
  47. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Brechin likeliest at 55%. 2–2 · 55–36–9
  48. 94′We said Brechin at 82%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 2–2 · 3–96–1
  49. 96′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Brechin likeliest at 49%. 2–2 · 49–43–8
  50. 99′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 47%. 2–2 · 45–47–8
  51. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
  52. FTFULL TIME Brechin 2–2 Strathspey Thistle
  53. FTBrechin 2–2 Strathspey Thistle after 90 minutes, as graded · Brechin win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Brechin are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brechin 82%, draw 12%, Strathspey Thistle 6%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Brechin v Strathspey ThistleBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Brechin win82%
Draw12%
Strathspey Thistle win6%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundRound of 128

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brechin

Strathspey Thistle

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Football League - Lowland League

Last match: 16 Oct · Football League - Highland League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brechin winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
82% The market–
Us82%

We make Brechin an 82% chance to win. The model expects 3.1–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Brechin v Strathspey Thistle3.07 – 0.73
Form · FA Cup this season · since 3 OctW0 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Brechin win82%––
Draw12%––
Strathspey Thistle win6%––
Over 2.5 goals72%––
Both teams to score49%––
Over 1.5 goals88%––
Over 3.5 goals52%––
Brechin or draw94%––
Brechin clean sheet49%––
Strathspey Thistle clean sheet6%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.5%
0123450 2.9 1 7.3 5.2 2 10.5 7.3 2.7 3 10.3 7.3 2.7 4 7.9 5.7 2.1 5 5.0 3.6
under 2% 5% 12%+Brechin down, Strathspey Thistle across0–5 goals a side shown (89.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting5.30
Over 2.59 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsSTR 1–0 BRE · BRE 3–0 STR · STR 1–4 BRE · BRE 7–0 STR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · FA Cup this season · since 3 Oct

BRECHIN

D2–2

STRATHSPEY THISTLE

W3–2