Stenhousemuir v Livingston prediction · Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

StenhousemuirDrawLivingston

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Stenhousemuir 34%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Stenhousemuir just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Stenhousemuir 34%, draw 32%, Livingston 33%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Stenhousemuir v LivingstonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Stenhousemuir win34%

Draw32%

Livingston win33%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 13

VenueOchilview Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stenhousemuir

Livingston

6Days since last match6

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Stenhousemuir	11	+5	23
6	Livingston	12	+4	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stenhousemuir winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:23 · locked at kick-off

34% The market–

Us34%

We make Stenhousemuir a 34% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stenhousemuir v Livingston~~1.09 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 15 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 23 v 17~~2 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stenhousemuir win

Published at 36%, 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stenhousemuir win	34%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Livingston win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Stenhousemuir or draw	67%	–	–
Stenhousemuir clean sheet	35%	–	–
Livingston clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.6%

0123450 13.4 10.8 6.6 2.4 1 11.1 14.6 7.0 2.6 2 6.9 7.1 3.8 3 2.6 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stenhousemuir down, Livingston across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 988 Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stenhousemuir at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Livingston away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Stenhousemuir, 1.07 for Livingston. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~LIV 0–1 STE · STE 0–0 LIV · STE 1–3 LIV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 15 Sept

STENHOUSEMUIR

WWWLDL1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

LIVINGSTON

DWLLDW2–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Partick	12	+11	25
2	Stenhousemuir	11	+5	23
3	Raith Rovers	12	+7	21
4	Inverness CT	12	+5	19
5	Dunfermline	11	+3	18
6	Livingston	12	+4	17
7	Ayr Utd	11	−2	12
8	Arbroath	12	−11	11
9	Morton	11	−9	7
10	Queen's Park	12	−13	7