Stenhousemuir v Dunfermline prediction · Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

StenhousemuirDrawDunfermline

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Stenhousemuir 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Stenhousemuir are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Stenhousemuir 44%, draw 32%, Dunfermline 24%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Stenhousemuir v DunfermlineBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Stenhousemuir win44%

Draw32%

Dunfermline win24%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 9

VenueOchilview Park

RefereeG. Irvine

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Stenhousemuir

Dunfermline

3Days since last match3

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · stenhousemuir winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market34%

Us44%

~~Market~~34%

We make Stenhousemuir a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Stenhousemuir v Dunfermline~~1.25 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 23 v 15~~1 v 5

~~The market · Stenhousemuir win~~34% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Stenhousemuir win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Stenhousemuir win	44%	34%	+10
Draw	32%	29%	+3
Dunfermline win	24%	37%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	35%	44%	−9
Both teams to score	42%	50%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	63%	68%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	16%	24%	−8
Stenhousemuir or draw	76%	63%	+13
Stenhousemuir clean sheet	43%	–	–
Dunfermline clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 14.1 8.8 4.4 1 13.7 14.3 5.4 2 9.5 7.9 3.4 3 4.0 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Stenhousemuir down, Dunfermline across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 984 Championship matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.8% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Stenhousemuir at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Dunfermline away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Stenhousemuir, 0.85 for Dunfermline. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~DUN 3–0 STE · DUN 4–1 STE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept

STENHOUSEMUIR

WWWLDL1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

DUNFERMLINE

WWDDDW2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stenhousemuir	10	+8	23
2	Partick	11	+8	22
3	Raith Rovers	11	+9	21
4	Inverness CT	11	+3	16
5	Dunfermline	10	+2	15
6	Livingston	11	+3	14
7	Ayr Utd	11	−2	12
8	Arbroath	11	−10	11
9	Morton	11	−9	7
10	Queen's Park	11	−12	7