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Raith Rovers v Queen's Park

Raith Rovers

2–0Full time

Queen's Park

Championship · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Raith Rovers 2–0 Queen's Park RAITH ROVERS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Raith Rovers win~~54%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.324

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.211

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Raith Rovers win at 54%.
4′Little has changed for our model: Raith Rovers 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–20
4′KICK-OFF Raith Rovers v Queen's Park
32′Raith Rovers ahead on 31′ through S. Brown. 0–0. 0–0 · 47–34–19
35′⚽ GOAL · 31' Raith Rovers 1–0 Queen's Park · S. Brown
35′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Queen's Park
35′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Raith Rovers
38′We said Raith Rovers at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–15–4
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Raith Rovers win: 54% at kick-off, 81% now
41′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–4
41′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Queen's Park
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Queen's Park
45′HALF-TIME Raith Rovers 1–0 Queen's Park
47′SECOND HALF Raith Rovers 1–0 Queen's Park
65′🟨 YELLOW · 44' A. Connolly · Queen's Park
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Raith Rovers 2–0 Queen's Park
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Queen's Park · On: T. McDonnell · Off: L. Stewart
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Queen's Park · On: L. Longridge · Off: M. Ruth
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Raith Rovers
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Raith Rovers · On: L. Stevenson · Off: K. Turner
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Raith Rovers · On: R. Millen · Off: K. Montagu
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Raith Rovers · On: C. Fordyce · Off: A. Lyall
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Queen's Park · On: B. Brannan · Off: M. Shiels
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Queen's Park
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Queen's Park
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Raith Rovers
FTFULL TIME Raith Rovers 2–0 Queen's Park
FTRaith Rovers 2–0 Queen's Park · Raith Rovers win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Raith Rovers win54%

Draw27%

Queen's Park win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Referee · R. Hardie

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Raith Rovers

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Rae

2 J. Rowe

6 J. Baird

4 P. Hanlon

3 Z. Delaney

20 S. Brown

8 K. Turner

7 A. Lyall

25 K. Montagu

15 S. Tiffoney

9 G. Oakley

Coach · Paul Hanlon

Substitutes

13 · L. Armstrong

5 · C. Fordyce

16 · L. Stevenson

22 · R. Millen

Queen's Park

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Mitchell

12 C. Pignatiello

4 E. Murray

5 R. Lamie

21 R. McLean

22 M. Shiels

8 S. Martin

11 A. Connolly

9 M. Ruth

14 L. Stewart

77 N. Todorov

Coach · Sean Crighton

Substitutes

31 · M. Sliwinski

2 · Z. Mauchin

7 · L. Longridge

17 · T. McDonnell

18 · C. Goldie

20 · K. Rodger

24 · A. McCallion

25 · Z. Lawson

26 · B. Brannan

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Raith Rovers

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Rae

2 J. Rowe

6 J. Baird

4 P. Hanlon

3 Z. Delaney

20 S. Brown

8 K. Turner

7 A. Lyall

25 K. Montagu

15 S. Tiffoney

9 G. Oakley

Coach · Paul Hanlon

Substitutes

13 · L. Armstrong

5 · C. Fordyce

16 · L. Stevenson

22 · R. Millen

Queen's Park

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Mitchell

12 C. Pignatiello

4 E. Murray

5 R. Lamie

21 R. McLean

22 M. Shiels

8 S. Martin

11 A. Connolly

9 M. Ruth

14 L. Stewart

77 N. Todorov

Coach · Sean Crighton

Substitutes

31 · M. Sliwinski

2 · Z. Mauchin

7 · L. Longridge

17 · T. McDonnell

18 · C. Goldie

20 · K. Rodger

24 · A. McCallion

25 · Z. Lawson

26 · B. Brannan

Our number · raith rovers winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

54% The market63%

Us54%

~~Market~~63%

We make Raith Rovers a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · raith rovers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 62% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Raith Rovers win	54%	63%	−9
Draw	27%	23%	+4
Queen's Park win	19%	14%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	50%	−4
Both teams to score	48%	46%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	72%	73%	0
Over 3.5 goals	25%	29%	−4
Raith Rovers or draw	81%	86%	−5
Raith Rovers clean sheet	42%	–	–
Queen's Park clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.7 5.9 3.2 1 12.0 12.8 5.0 2 10.8 9.3 4.1 3 5.9 5.1 2.2 4 2.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Raith Rovers down, Queen's Park across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 972 Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 28.6% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

17 previous meetings, 3.24 goals a meeting; 10 of 17 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Raith Rovers at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Queen's Park away: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Raith Rovers, 0.88 for Queen's Park. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

17 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.24

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 17

~~Both scored~~12 of 17

~~Last meetings~~QUE 1–2 RAI · QUE 0–2 RAI · RAI 4–1 QUE · QUE 2–1 RAI

Form · last six in Championship

RAITH ROVERS

LWWDLW0–1 · 2–0 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–1

QUEEN'S PARK

LDWLLL0–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stenhousemuir	8	+10	22
2	Raith Rovers	9	+7	17
3	Partick	8	+6	15
4	Livingston	9	+4	13
5	Dunfermline	7	+2	12
6	Ayr Utd	9	−1	11
7	Arbroath	9	−7	11
8	Inverness CT	8	0	10
9	Queen's Park	8	−9	4
10	Morton	9	−12	1