Raith Rovers v Inverness CT prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Raith Rovers 0–2 Inverness CT RAITH ROVERS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Raith Rovers win~~42%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.790

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.674

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Raith Rovers win at 42%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Raith Rovers 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–31–28
1′KICK-OFF Raith Rovers v Inverness CT
15′A goal for Inverness CT on 14′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–23–60
15′We said Raith Rovers at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–23–60
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Raith Rovers 0–1 Inverness CT
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Raith Rovers win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Inverness CT win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Raith Rovers win 40%)
23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' Inverness CT
26′We said Raith Rovers at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–62
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 13–24–63
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Raith Rovers win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
38′Inverness CT find the net on 38′. 0–1 · 11–24–65
39′37′: A. Stewart on the scoresheet for Inverness CT, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–89
39′We said Raith Rovers at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–89
39′⚽ GOAL · 37' Raith Rovers 0–2 Inverness CT · A. Stewart (assist L. Stewart)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Raith Rovers win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Raith Rovers
45′HALF-TIME Raith Rovers 0–2 Inverness CT
45′SECOND HALF Raith Rovers 0–2 Inverness CT
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Raith Rovers · On: K. Montagu · Off: A. Lyall
67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Inverness CT · On: R. Duncan · Off: L. Sole
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Raith Rovers
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Raith Rovers · On: R. Millen · Off: J. Rowe
82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Inverness CT · On: D. E. Osong · Off: L. Stewart
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Raith Rovers
FTFULL TIME Raith Rovers 0–2 Inverness CT
FTRaith Rovers 0–2 Inverness CT · Raith Rovers win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Raith Rovers are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Raith Rovers 42%, draw 31%, Inverness CT 28%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Raith Rovers v Inverness CTBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Raith Rovers win42%

Draw31%

Inverness CT win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

RefereeC. Stirling

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Raith Rovers

Inverness CT

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Raith Rovers	11	+9	21
4	Inverness CT	11	+3	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · raith rovers winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market38%

Us42%

~~Market~~38%

We make Raith Rovers a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Raith Rovers v Inverness CT~~1.33 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 16~~3 v 4

~~The market · Raith Rovers win~~38% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Raith Rovers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Raith Rovers win	42%	38%	+4
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Inverness CT win	28%	33%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	42%	44%	−2
Both teams to score	48%	51%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	70%	69%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	24%	−2
Raith Rovers or draw	72%	67%	+5
Raith Rovers clean sheet	36%	–	–
Inverness CT clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 11.3 8.2 5.1 1 10.9 14.2 6.6 2.3 2 8.2 8.4 4.3 3 3.7 3.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Raith Rovers down, Inverness CT across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 984 Championship matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.8% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Raith Rovers at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Inverness CT away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Raith Rovers, 1.04 for Inverness CT. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~INV 0–2 RAI · RAI 4–1 INV · RAI 5–1 INV · INV 0–1 RAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept

RAITH ROVERS

WDLWWD4–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–1

INVERNESS CT

WDWWLW3–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stenhousemuir	10	+8	23
2	Partick	11	+8	22
3	Raith Rovers	11	+9	21
4	Inverness CT	11	+3	16
5	Dunfermline	10	+2	15
6	Livingston	11	+3	14
7	Ayr Utd	11	−2	12
8	Arbroath	11	−10	11
9	Morton	11	−9	7
10	Queen's Park	11	−12	7