Queen's Park v Inverness CT prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 22:30

Queen's Park 2–1 Inverness CT INVERNESS CT WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Inverness CT win~~41%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.783

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.048

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inverness CT win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Inverness CT 41% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 29–28–43
1′KICK-OFF Queen's Park v Inverness CT
7′Inverness CT ahead on 7′ through G. Shinnie. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–19–71
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Queen's Park 0–1 Inverness CT
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Inverness CT win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
9′We said Inverness CT at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 10–19–71
19′A goal for Queen's Park on 18′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 28–32–40
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Queen's Park 1–1 Inverness CT
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Inverness CT win: 41% at kick-off, 40% now
41′41′ and it is 2–1: Queen's Park have scored. 2–1 · 65–24–10
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Inverness CT win 35%)
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Queen's Park 2–1 Inverness CT
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Inverness CT win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Queen's Park win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Draw 24%)
42′We said Inverness CT at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 2–1 · 66–24–10
43′3 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 66–24–10
45′We said Inverness CT at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 67–24–9
45′HALF-TIME Queen's Park 2–1 Inverness CT
46′⚽ GOAL · 7' Queen's Park 2–1 Inverness CT · G. Shinnie
46′⚽ GOAL · 18' Queen's Park 2–1 Inverness CT · A. Connolly (assist L. Stewart)
46′⚽ GOAL · 41' Queen's Park 2–1 Inverness CT · A. Connolly (assist M. Ruth)
46′SECOND HALF Queen's Park 2–1 Inverness CT
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Queen's Park · On: C. Smith · Off: B. Brannan
51′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Queen's Park
57′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Inverness CT · On: L. Sole · Off: R. Duncan
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Inverness CT · On: A. Stewart · Off: R. MacGregor
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Inverness CT · On: A. Bavidge · Off: L. Longstaff
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Inverness CT
60′⚽ GOAL · 7' Queen's Park 2–1 Inverness CT · G. Shinnie
60′⚽ GOAL · 18' Queen's Park 2–1 Inverness CT · A. Connolly (assist L. Stewart)
60′⚽ GOAL · 41' Queen's Park 2–1 Inverness CT · A. Connolly (assist M. Ruth)
60′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Queen's Park · On: C. Smith · Off: B. Brannan
60′🟨 YELLOW · 49' M. Ruth · Queen's Park
60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Inverness CT · On: L. Sole · Off: R. Duncan
60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Inverness CT · On: A. Stewart · Off: R. MacGregor
60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Inverness CT · On: A. Bavidge · Off: L. Longstaff
60′🟨 YELLOW · 58' L. Stewart · Inverness CT
65′We said Inverness CT at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Queen's Park · On: R. McLean · Off: L. Stewart
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Queen's Park · On: N. Todorov · Off: M. Ruth
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Queen's Park · On: S. Martin · Off: L. Longridge
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Inverness CT · On: D. E. Osong · Off: L. Stewart
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Inverness CT · On: D. Wotherspoon · Off: A. Mackinnon
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Inverness CT win: 41% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Queen's Park 2–1 Inverness CT
FTQueen's Park 2–1 Inverness CT · Inverness CT win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

Queen's Park win28%

Draw31%

Inverness CT win41%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 19:45

VenueThe City Stadium

RefereeD. Nicolson

Line-ups

Queen's Park

4-2-3-1

Inverness CT

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Queen's Park

Inverness CT

3Days since last match3

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Inverness CT	9	+2	13
10	Queen's Park	9	−11	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Queen's Park

4-2-3-1

1 D. Mitchell

2 Z. Mauchin

12 C. Pignatiello

5 R. Lamie

22 M. Shiels

7 L. Longridge

26 B. Brannan

11 A. Connolly

24 A. McCallion

14 L. Stewart

9 M. Ruth

Coach · Sean Crighton

Substitutes

31 · M. Sliwinski

8 · S. Martin

17 · T. McDonnell

20 · K. Rodger

21 · R. McLean

25 · Z. Lawson

27 · C. Smith

77 · N. Todorov

Inverness CT

4-2-3-1

1 R. Munro

2 C. MacLeod

15 K. Smith

5 R. Savage

4 G. Shinnie

26 R. MacGregor

7 P. Allan

16 R. Duncan

8 A. Mackinnon

11 L. Longstaff

9 L. Stewart

Coach · Scott Kellacher

Substitutes

21 · L. Ross

3 · N. Boutin

6 · D. Devine

10 · D. Wotherspoon

12 · D. MacKay

17 · L. Sole

20 · D. E. Osong

35 · A. Stewart

36 · A. Bavidge

Our number · inverness ct winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 19:03 · locked at kick-off

41% The market57%

Us41%

~~Market~~57%

We make Inverness CT a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · inverness ct win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 41% now. The market has gone from 58% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Queen's Park win	28%	19%	+9
Draw	31%	24%	+7
Inverness CT win	41%	57%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	42%	50%	−8
Both teams to score	48%	49%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	69%	73%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	21%	29%	−8
Queen's Park or draw	59%	43%	+16
Queen's Park clean sheet	27%	–	–
Inverness CT clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 11.4 11.1 8.2 3.6 1 8.4 14.2 8.3 3.7 2 5.1 6.6 4.3 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Queen's Park down, Inverness CT across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 977 Championship matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.8% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.25 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Queen's Park at home: 0.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Inverness CT away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Queen's Park, 1.31 for Inverness CT. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.25

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~QUE 0–1 INV · INV 0–1 QUE · QUE 1–4 INV · INV 1–2 QUE

Form · last six in Championship

QUEEN'S PARK

DWLLLL0–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

INVERNESS CT

LLWDWW1–3 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stenhousemuir	9	+8	22
2	Raith Rovers	10	+9	20
3	Partick	9	+7	18
4	Livingston	10	+3	13
5	Inverness CT	9	+2	13
6	Dunfermline	8	+2	13
7	Ayr Utd	10	−1	12
8	Arbroath	10	−8	11
9	Morton	10	−11	4
10	Queen's Park	9	−11	4