Queen's Park v Dunfermline prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Queen's Park 0–1 Dunfermline DUNFERMLINE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dunfermline win~~38%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.570

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.247

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dunfermline win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dunfermline was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 29–32–38
1′KICK-OFF Queen's Park v Dunfermline
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Queen's Park
19′Dunfermline find the net on 18′. 0–1. 0–1 · 9–19–72
19′We published Dunfermline at 38%. Our model now makes it 72%. 0–1 · 9–19–72
19′⚽ GOAL · 18' Queen's Park 0–1 Dunfermline
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Dunfermline win: 38% at kick-off, 72% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 8–19–73
41′We published Dunfermline at 38%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Dunfermline
45′HALF-TIME Queen's Park 0–1 Dunfermline
46′SECOND HALF Queen's Park 0–1 Dunfermline
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Dunfermline win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
60′We published Dunfermline at 38%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Queen's Park · On: C. Smith · Off: M. Ruth
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Queen's Park · On: T. McDonnell · Off: L. Stewart
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Dunfermline
71′We published Dunfermline at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Dunfermline win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Dunfermline · On: C. Morrison · Off: J. Cooper
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Dunfermline · On: O. Shaw · Off: O. Adams
79′We published Dunfermline at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
86′We published Dunfermline at 38%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Queen's Park · On: N. Todorov · Off: S. Martin
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Dunfermline · On: C. Gilmour · Off: A. Oyirwoth
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Dunfermline · On: O. Thomas · Off: A. Tod
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Queen's Park
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Dunfermline win: 38% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Queen's Park 0–1 Dunfermline
FTQueen's Park 0–1 Dunfermline · Dunfermline win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dunfermline are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Queen's Park 29%, draw 32%, Dunfermline 38%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Queen's Park v DunfermlineBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Queen's Park win29%

Draw32%

Dunfermline win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

VenueThe City Stadium

RefereeC. Steven

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Queen's Park

Dunfermline

7Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish Championship

Last match: 20 Oct · the Scottish Championship

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Dunfermline	10	+2	15
10	Queen's Park	11	−12	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dunfermline winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

38% The market60%

Us38%

~~Market~~60%

We make Dunfermline a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 22 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Queen's Park v Dunfermline~~1.01 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 15~~10 v 5

~~The market · Dunfermline win~~60% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dunfermline win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Queen's Park win	29%	17%	+12
Draw	32%	24%	+8
Dunfermline win	38%	60%	−22
Over 2.5 goals	38%	51%	−13
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	66%	74%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	18%	31%	−13
Queen's Park or draw	62%	40%	+22
Queen's Park clean sheet	31%	–	–
Dunfermline clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.7%

0123450 13.0 11.6 7.8 3.1 1 9.6 14.7 7.8 3.1 2 5.7 6.6 3.9 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Queen's Park down, Dunfermline across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 984 Championship matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.8% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Queen's Park at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Dunfermline away: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Queen's Park, 1.19 for Dunfermline. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DUN 2–0 QUE · QUE 0–2 DUN · DUN 1–0 QUE · QUE 1–1 DUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept

QUEEN'S PARK

LLLLWL0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2

DUNFERMLINE

DWWDDD1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stenhousemuir	10	+8	23
2	Partick	11	+8	22
3	Raith Rovers	11	+9	21
4	Inverness CT	11	+3	16
5	Dunfermline	10	+2	15
6	Livingston	11	+3	14
7	Ayr Utd	11	−2	12
8	Arbroath	11	−10	11
9	Morton	11	−9	7
10	Queen's Park	11	−12	7