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Partick v Stenhousemuir
PartickStenhousemuirChampionship · SAT 24 OCT · Firhill Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Partick win at 41%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Partick 41% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–32–27
- 1′KICK-OFF Partick v Stenhousemuir
- 7′We said Partick at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 1–0 · 73–17–10
- 7′Partick score on 7′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–17–10
- 7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Partick 1–0 Stenhousemuir
- 7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Partick win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
- 25′We said Partick at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
- 25′Partick find the net on 25′. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
- 25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Partick 2–0 Stenhousemuir
- 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Partick win: 41% at kick-off, 92% now
- 42′We said Partick at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
- 45′HALF-TIME Partick 2–0 Stenhousemuir
- 45′SECOND HALF Partick 2–0 Stenhousemuir
- 47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Stenhousemuir · On: L. Lloyd · Off: R. Meechan
- 56′We said Partick at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 56′A goal for Partick on 56′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Partick 3–0 Stenhousemuir
- 57′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Stenhousemuir · On: G. Stevenson · Off: A. Shinnie
- 63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Stenhousemuir · On: M. Gillies · Off: F. Robson
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Partick · On: A. Fitzpatrick · Off: E. Henderson
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Partick · On: A. Samuel · Off: T. Watt
- 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Stenhousemuir
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Partick · On: R. Crawford · Off: O. Smyth
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Stenhousemuir · On: D. Carrick · Off: L. Hodgkiss
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Partick · On: T. Letsosa · Off: B. Stanway
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Stenhousemuir · On: G. Buchanan · Off: L. Grant
- 87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Partick · On: C. Logan · Off: E. Ingram
- 90′Partick find the net on 90′. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Partick 4–0 Stenhousemuir
- FTPartick 3–0 Stenhousemuir · Partick win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Partick are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Partick 41%, draw 32%, Stenhousemuir 27%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 44%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Partick win41%Stenhousemuir win27%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 12
VenueFirhill Stadium
RefereeC. Scott
Match timeline
All events
PartickMINStenhousemuirEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Partick
Stenhousemuir
Last match: 20 Oct · the Scottish Championship
Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish Championship
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 10 | +8 | 23 |
| 2 | Partick | 11 | +8 | 22 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Partick a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 22 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Partick win | 41% | 63% | −22 |
| Draw | 32% | 23% | +9 |
| Stenhousemuir win | 27% | 14% | +13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 51% | −15 |
| Both teams to score | 44% | 47% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | 74% | −9 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 31% | −14 |
| Partick or draw | 73% | 86% | −13 |
| Partick clean sheet | 39% | – | – |
| Stenhousemuir clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Championship this season · since 4 Sept
PARTICK
STENHOUSEMUIR
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stenhousemuir | 10 | +8 | 23 |
| 2 | Partick | 11 | +8 | 22 |
| 3 |  Raith Rovers | 11 | +9 | 21 |
| 4 |  Inverness CT | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 5 |  Dunfermline | 10 | +2 | 15 |
| 6 |  Livingston | 11 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 |  Ayr Utd | 11 | −2 | 12 |
| 8 |  Arbroath | 11 | −10 | 11 |
| 9 |  Morton | 11 | −9 | 7 |
| 10 |  Queen's Park | 11 | −12 | 7 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.