Partick v Morton prediction · Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PartickDrawMorton

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Partick 59%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Partick are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Partick 59%, draw 26%, Morton 15%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Partick v MortonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Partick win59%

Draw26%

Morton win15%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

VenueFirhill Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Partick

Morton

7Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · the Scottish Championship

Last match: 17 Oct · the Scottish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · partick winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Partick a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Partick v Morton~~1.74 – 0.78

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 11 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 25 v 7~~1 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Partick win	59%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Morton win	15%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Partick or draw	85%	–	–
Partick clean sheet	46%	–	–
Morton clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.7%

0123450 9.5 5.1 2.5 1 12.7 12.0 4.3 2 12.0 9.3 3.7 3 7.0 5.4 2.1 4 3.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Partick down, Morton across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 988 Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.6% of games this season, across 58 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Partick at home: 1.50 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 6). Morton away: 0.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Partick, 0.78 for Morton. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MOR 0–1 PAR · MOR 1–2 PAR · PAR 3–2 MOR · MOR 1–1 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 11 Sept

PARTICK

DWWWDW0–0 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 3–0

MORTON

LLLLWW1–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Partick	12	+11	25
2	Stenhousemuir	11	+5	23
3	Raith Rovers	12	+7	21
4	Inverness CT	12	+5	19
5	Dunfermline	11	+3	18
6	Livingston	12	+4	17
7	Ayr Utd	11	−2	12
8	Arbroath	12	−11	11
9	Morton	11	−9	7
10	Queen's Park	12	−13	7