Morton v Queen's Park prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Morton 2–0 Queen's Park MORTON WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Morton win~~40%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.535

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.591

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Morton win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Morton 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–30
1′KICK-OFF Morton v Queen's Park
7′Little has changed for our model: Morton 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–31–30
7′🟨 YELLOW · 7' Queen's Park
15′A goal for Morton on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–18–11
15′We said Morton at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–18–11
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Morton 1–0 Queen's Park
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Morton win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
17′G. Gillespie scores for Morton on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–11
31′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' J. Longridge · Morton
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Queen's Park
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Queen's Park
44′Morton score on 44′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
44′We said Morton at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Morton 2–0 Queen's Park
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Morton win: 40% at kick-off, 94% now
45′HALF-TIME Morton 2–0 Queen's Park
46′43′: M. Garrity on the scoresheet for Morton, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
46′SECOND HALF Morton 2–0 Queen's Park
50′We said Morton at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–5–1
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Queen's Park · On: Z. Mauchin · Off: C. Pignatiello
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Queen's Park · On: A. McCallion · Off: L. Longridge
62′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Queen's Park · On: L. Stewart · Off: N. Todorov
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Queen's Park · On: R. McLean · Off: C. Smith
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Morton
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Queen's Park
82′We said Morton at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Morton · On: H. Cochrane · Off: K. Robertson
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Morton win: 40% at kick-off, over 99% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Morton · On: M. O'Halloran · Off: M. Garrity
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Queen's Park · On: T. McDonnell · Off: E. Murray
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Queen's Park
FTFULL TIME Morton 2–0 Queen's Park
FTMorton 2–0 Queen's Park · Morton win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Morton are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Morton 40%, draw 30%, Queen's Park 30%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Morton v Queen's ParkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Morton win40%

Draw30%

Queen's Park win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueCappielow Park

RefereeJ. Wilkie

Line-ups

Morton

Queen's Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Morton

Queen's Park

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · the Scottish Championship

Last match: 13 Oct · the Scottish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Queen's Park	10	−10	7
10	Morton	10	−11	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Morton

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Harrison

2 C. Ballantyne

5 P. Croker

3 J. Longridge

6 C. Okike

21 G. Gillespie

27 I. Wilson

20 C. Sandilands

19 K. Robertson

7 M. Garrity

12 D. Borso

Coach · Gary Miller

Substitutes

31 · B. Kinnear

9 · J. Gorman

25 · M. Carse

28 · L. Murphy

29 · M. O'Halloran

35 · D. Black

47 · H. Cochrane

52 · L. Fairnie

Queen's Park

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Mitchell

12 C. Pignatiello

4 E. Murray

5 R. Lamie

22 M. Shiels

11 A. Connolly

8 S. Martin

7 L. Longridge

27 C. Smith

9 M. Ruth

77 N. Todorov

Coach · Sean Crighton

Substitutes

31 · M. Sliwinski

2 · Z. Mauchin

14 · L. Stewart

17 · T. McDonnell

21 · R. McLean

24 · A. McCallion

25 · Z. Lawson

26 · B. Brannan

Our number · morton winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

40% The market37%

Us40%

~~Market~~37%

We make Morton a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Morton v Queen's Park~~1.34 – 1.12

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D0 L5 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 4 v 7~~10 v 9

~~The market · Morton win~~37% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Morton win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Morton win	40%	37%	+3
Draw	30%	29%	+1
Queen's Park win	30%	34%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	44%	45%	−1
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	71%	70%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	26%	−3
Morton or draw	70%	66%	+4
Morton clean sheet	33%	–	–
Queen's Park clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 10.2 8.2 5.4 2.0 1 10.1 14.0 7.1 2.7 2 7.7 8.4 4.7 3 3.4 3.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Morton down, Queen's Park across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 979 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.6% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Morton at home: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Queen's Park away: 0.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Morton, 1.12 for Queen's Park. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~QUE 2–1 MOR · MOR 0–0 QUE · QUE 3–2 MOR · MOR 2–1 QUE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept

MORTON

LLLLLW1–2 · 1–4 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

QUEEN'S PARK

WLLLLW2–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Stenhousemuir	9	+8	22
2	Partick	10	+8	21
3	Raith Rovers	10	+9	20
4	Livingston	10	+3	13
5	Dunfermline	8	+2	13
6	Inverness CT	10	+1	13
7	Ayr Utd	11	−2	12
8	Arbroath	10	−8	11
9	Queen's Park	10	−10	7
10	Morton	10	−11	4